2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah
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All 4 Utah seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Utah |
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The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Utah, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
Overview
[edit]Registered voters: 1,682,512. Turnout: 1,515,845 (90.09%)[1]
Party | Candi- dates | Votes | Seats | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | % | No. | +/– | |||
Republican Party | 4 | 873,347 | 60.98% | 4 | 1 | |
Democratic Party | 4 | 505,946 | 35.33% | 0 | 1 | |
Libertarian Party | 2 | 28,518 | 1.99% | 0 | ||
United Utah | 2 | 15,077 | 1.05% | 0 | ||
Constitution Party | 1 | 8,889 | 0.62% | 0 | ||
Total | 13 | 1,432,232 | 100.0% | 4 |
By district
[edit]District | Republican | Democratic | Others | Total | Result | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
District 1 | 237,988 | 69.52% | 104,194 | 30.43% | 169 | 0.05% | 342,351 | 100% | Republican Hold |
District 2 | 208,997 | 59.0% | 129,762 | 36.63% | 15,465 | 4.37% | 354,224 | 100% | Republican Hold |
District 3 | 246,674 | 68.73% | 96,067 | 26.77% | 16,186 | 4.51% | 358,927 | 100% | Republican Hold |
District 4 | 179,688 | 47.70% | 175,923 | 46.70% | 21,119 | 5.6% | 376,730 | 100% | Republican gain |
Total | 873,347 | 60.98% | 505,946 | 35.33% | 52,939 | 3.7% | 1,432,232 | 100% |
District 1
[edit]
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County results Moore: 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Parry: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district is located in northern Utah, including the cities of Ogden, Logan, Park City, Layton, Clearfield, and the northern half of the Great Salt Lake. The incumbent is Republican Rob Bishop, who was re-elected with 61.6% of the vote in 2018,[2] and announced in August 2017 that this term would be his final term.[3]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Tina Cannon, Morgan County councilwoman[4]
- J.C. DeYoung[5]
- Doug Durbano, businessman and lawyer[6]
- Chadwick Fairbanks, property manager[7]
- Kerry Gibson, Utah Commissioner of Agriculture and Food and former Weber County commissioner[8]
- Catherine Brenchley Hammon[9]
- Zach Hartman, real estate investment advisor[5]
- Blake Moore, former U.S. foreign service officer[10]
- Mark Shepherd, mayor of Clearfield[11]
- Bob Stevenson, Davis County commissioner[12]
- Howard Wallack, retired business executive[7]
- Katie Witt, mayor of Kaysville and former Longmont city councilwoman[13]
Declined
[edit]- Rob Bishop, incumbent U.S. representative[3]
- Francis Gibson, majority leader of the Utah House of Representatives[12]
- F. Ann Millner, state senator[12]
- Mike Schultz, majority whip of the Utah House of Representatives[12]
- Chris Stewart, incumbent U.S. representative (for the 2nd district)[14]
- Stan Summers, Box Elder County commissioner[15]
- Todd Weiler, state senator[12]
- Logan Wilde, state representative[16]
- Brad Wilson, speaker of the Utah House of Representatives[12]
Endorsements
[edit]Organizations
Convention results
[edit]Republican convention results[18] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | Round 7 | Round 8 | Round 9 | Round 10 | Round 11 | |||||||||||
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |
Kerry Gibson | 248 | 25.7% | 248 | 25.7% | 248 | 25.7% | 252 | 26.2% | 253 | 26.3% | 260 | 27.0% | 269 | 28.1% | 292 | 30.7% | 329 | 34.9% | 404 | 43.4% | 514 | 57.0% |
Blake Moore | 166 | 17.2% | 166 | 17.2% | 166 | 17.2% | 166 | 17.2% | 167 | 17.4% | 176 | 18.3% | 182 | 19.0% | 200 | 21.0% | 221 | 23.4% | 270 | 29.0% | 388 | 43.0% |
Tina Cannon | 136 | 14.1% | 136 | 14.1% | 137 | 14.2% | 138 | 14.3% | 140 | 14.6% | 150 | 15.6% | 160 | 16.7% | 174 | 18.3% | 215 | 22.8% | 256 | 27.5% | Eliminated | |
Doug Durbano | 130 | 13.5% | 130 | 13.5% | 131 | 13.6% | 132 | 13.7% | 139 | 14.4% | 142 | 14.8% | 143 | 14.9% | 151 | 15.9% | 179 | 19.0% | Eliminated | |||
Howard Wallack | 106 | 11.0% | 106 | 11.0% | 106 | 11.0% | 107 | 11.1% | 108 | 11.2% | 117 | 12.2% | 126 | 13.2% | 135 | 14.2% | Eliminated | |||||
Bob Stevenson | 61 | 6.3% | 61 | 6.3% | 61 | 6.3% | 62 | 6.4% | 62 | 6.4% | 67 | 7.0% | 77 | 8.0% | Eliminated | |||||||
Mark Shepherd | 45 | 4.7% | 45 | 4.7% | 45 | 4.7% | 46 | 4.8% | 47 | 4.9% | 50 | 5.2% | Eliminated | |||||||||
Katie Witt | 46 | 4.8% | 46 | 4.8% | 46 | 4.8% | 46 | 4.8% | 46 | 4.8% | Eliminated | |||||||||||
Chadwick Fairbanks | 14 | 1.5% | 14 | 1.5% | 14 | 1.5% | 14 | 1.5% | Eliminated | |||||||||||||
Zach Hartman | 10 | 1.0% | 10 | 1.0% | 10 | 1.0% | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||
JC DeYoung | 2 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.2% | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||||
Catherine Hammon | 0 | 0.0% | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||||||
Inactive Ballots | 0 ballots | 0 ballots | 0 ballots | 1 ballots | 2 ballots | 2 ballots | 7 ballots | 12 ballots | 20 ballots | 34 ballots | 62 ballots |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Tina Cannon | Douglas Durbano | Kerry Gibson | Catherine Hammon | Blake Moore | Mark Shepherd | Bob Stevenson | Katie Witt | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group[19][A] | June 18–20, 2020 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | – | 15% | – | 25% | – | 23% | 12% | – | 25% |
Dan Jones & Associates[20][A] | June 2–9, 2020 | 417 (LV) | ± 5% | – | – | 13% | – | 16% | – | 16% | 7% | – | 48% |
Y2 Analytics[21] | May 16–18, 2020 | 127 (LV) | ± 8.7% | – | – | 20% | – | 16% | – | 38% | 26% | – | – |
Y2 Analytics[22] | March 21–30, 2020 | 103 (LV) | ± 9.7% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 13% | 25% | 17% | > 1%[b] | – |
Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
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Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||||
Kerry Gibson | Blake Moore | Bob Stevenson | Katie Witt | |||||
1 | Jun. 2, 2020 | Utah Debate Commission | Rod Arquette | [23] | P | P | P | P |
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Blake Moore | 39,260 | 31.0 | |
Republican | Bob Stevenson | 36,288 | 28.6 | |
Republican | Kerry Gibson | 29,991 | 23.6 | |
Republican | Katie Witt | 21,317 | 16.8 | |
Total votes | 126,856 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Jamie Cheek, college debate coach and rehabilitation counselor[25]
- Darren Parry, chairman of the Northwestern Band of the Shoshone Nation[26]
Convention results
[edit]Democratic convention results[27] | |
---|---|
Candidate | Pct. |
Darren Parry | 55.6% |
Jamie Cheek | 44.4% |
Polling
[edit]Polls with a sample size of <100 are marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Jamie Cheek | Darren Parry |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics[22] | March 21–30, 2020 | 29 (LV) | ± 18.2% | 42% | 58% |
Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Jamie Cheek | Darren Parry | |||||
1 | Jun. 1, 2020 | Utah Debate Commission | Rod Arquette | [28] | P | P |
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Darren Parry | 11,667 | 50.9 | |
Democratic | Jamie Cheek | 11,242 | 49.1 | |
Total votes | 22,909 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
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Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Blake Moore | Darren Parry | |||||
1 | Sep. 24, 2020 | Utah Debate Commission | Rod Arquette | [29] | P | P |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[30] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
Inside Elections[31] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
Politico[33] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
Daily Kos[34] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
RCP[35] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
Niskanen[36] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Blake Moore (R) | Darren Parry (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lighthouse Research[37] | August 31 – September 12, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 49% | 22% | 1%[c] | 28% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
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Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Blake Moore | 237,988 | 69.5 | |
Democratic | Darren Parry | 104,194 | 30.4 | |
Write-in | 169 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 342,351 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 2
[edit]
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County results Stewart: 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Weston: 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district encompasses both Salt Lake City and the rural western and southern parts of the state. The incumbent is Republican Chris Stewart, who was re-elected with 56.1% of the vote in 2018.[2]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Chris Stewart, incumbent U.S. representative[14]
Eliminated at convention
[edit]- Mary Burkett, candidate for Utah House of Representatives in 2012 and for Utah's 2nd congressional district in 2018[43]
- Ty Jensen, political podcaster and 2018 candidate for United States Senate[44]
- Carson Jorgensen, farmer[45]
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Mark Burkett | Ty Jensen | Carson Jorgensen | Chris Stewart |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics[46] | March 21–30, 2020 | 175 (LV) | – | 17% | 6% | 4% | 73% |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Kael Weston, college professor and former U.S. State Department official[47][48]
Eliminated at convention
[edit]- Randy Hopkins, retired Utah Department of Workforce Services regional director and candidate for this district in 2018[49]
- Larry Livingston, former IRS agent[50]
Polling
[edit]Polls with a sample size of <100 are marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Randy Hopkins | Larry Livingston | Kael Weston |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics[51] | March 21–30, 2020 | 59 (LV) | – | 41% | 19% | 40% |
General election
[edit]Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian |
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Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||
Chris Stewart | Kael Weston | Rob Latham | |||||
1 | Oct. 19, 2020 | Utah Debate Commission | Pat Jones | [52] | P | P | P |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[30] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
Inside Elections[31] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
Politico[33] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
Daily Kos[34] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
RCP[35] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
Niskanen[36] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Chris Stewart (R) | Kael Weston (D) | Rob Latham (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lighthouse Research[37] | August 31 – September 12, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 48% | 28% | 7% | 0% | 17% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
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Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Chris Stewart (incumbent) | 208,997 | 59.0 | |
Democratic | Kael Weston | 129,762 | 36.6 | |
Libertarian | Rob Latham | 15,465 | 4.4 | |
Total votes | 354,224 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 3
[edit]
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County results Curtis: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Thorpe: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 3rd district includes rural southeastern Utah, stretches into the Provo-Orem metro area, and takes in the southeastern Salt Lake City suburbs of Holladay, Cottonwood Heights, Sandy, and Draper. The incumbent is Republican John Curtis, who was re-elected with 67.5% of the vote in 2018.[2]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- John Curtis, incumbent U.S. representative[50]
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Tim Alders | John Curtis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics[46] | March 21–30, 2020 | 184 (LV) | – | 22% | 78% |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Devin D. Thorpe, nonprofit founder[55]
Eliminated at convention
[edit]Polling
[edit]Polls with a sample size of <100 are marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Jared Anderson | Tray Robinson | Devin Thorpe |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics[51] | March 21–30, 2020 | 37 (LV) | – | 37% | 21% | 42% |
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Withdrew
[edit]- Russel Fugal, former Utah Republican Party delegate[57]
General election
[edit]Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
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Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
John Curtis | Devin Thorpe | |||||
1 | Oct. 15, 2020 | Utah Debate Commission | David Magleby | [58] | P | P |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[30] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
Inside Elections[31] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
Politico[33] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
Daily Kos[34] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
RCP[35] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
Niskanen[36] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | John Curtis (R) | Devin Thorpe (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lighthouse Research[37] | August 31 – September 12, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 51% | 20% | 5%[l] | 24% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
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Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | John Curtis (incumbent) | 246,674 | 68.8 | |
Democratic | Devin Thorpe | 96,067 | 26.8 | |
Constitution | Daniel Clyde Cummings | 8,889 | 2.5 | |
United Utah | Thomas G. McNeill | 7,040 | 2.0 | |
Write-in | 257 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 358,927 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 4
[edit]
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County results Owens: 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% McAdams: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 4th district is based in southwest Salt Lake County, taking in parts of West Valley City and Salt Lake City, as well as South Salt Lake, Taylorsville, Murray, West Jordan, Midvale, South Jordan, Riverton, Herriman, and Bluffdale. The district also stretches south into eastern Utah County, western Juab County, and northern Sanpete County. The incumbent is Democrat Ben McAdams, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.1% of the vote in 2018.[2]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Ben McAdams, incumbent U.S. Representative
Defeated at convention
[edit]- Daniel Beckstrand, dental office manager[60]
Endorsements
[edit]Polling
[edit]Polls with a sample size of <100 are marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Daniel Beckstrand | Ben McAdams | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics[51] | March 21–30, 2020 | 98 (LV) | ± 9.9% | 3% | 97% | – |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Kathleen Anderson, communications director for the Utah Republican Party[66]
- Chris Biesinger, family nurse practitioner and Utah National Guardsman[67]
- Trent Christensen, CEO of venture capitalist firm and former regional finance director for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign[68]
- Kim Coleman, state representative[50]
- Jay McFarland, radio personality[69]
- Burgess Owens, former NFL player and CEO of Second Chance 4 Youth[70]
- Cindy Thompson[60]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Dan Hemmert, state senate majority whip[71]
Declined
[edit]- Dan McCay, state senator (running for Lieutenant Governor of Utah)[72]
- Aimee Winder Newton, Salt Lake County councilwoman (running for Governor of Utah)[73]
Endorsements
[edit]State officials
- Justin Fawson, former state representative (2014–2018)[74]
- David Lifferth, former state representative[75]
- Karianne Lisonbee, state representative[76]
- Jefferson Moss, state representative[77]
Organizations
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kathleen Anderson | Chris Biesinger | Trent Christensen | Kim Coleman | Jay McFarland | Burgess Owens | Cindy Thompson | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics[81] | May 16–18, 2020 | 148 (LV) | ± 8.1% | – | – | 13% | 23% | 28% | 36% | – | – |
Hinckley Institute[82] | April 19–24, 2020 | 352 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 67% |
Y2 Analytics[51] | March 21–30, 2020 | 112 (LV) | ± 9.3% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 17% | 31% | 22% | 1% |
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Dan Hemmert, and Jefferson Moss
|
Convention results
[edit]US House of Representatives-District 4 [85] | ||||||||||||
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Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | ||||||
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |
Kim Coleman | 324 | 43.4% | 324 | 43.4% | 332 | 44.6% | 348 | 46.7% | 365 | 49.3% | 402 | 54.5% |
Burgess Owens | 211 | 28.3% | 212 | 28.4% | 218 | 29.3% | 237 | 31.8% | 268 | 36.2% | 335 | 45.5% |
Jay 'JayMac' McFarland | 75 | 10.1% | 75 | 10.1% | 79 | 10.6% | 97 | 13.0% | 107 | 14.5% | Eliminated | |
Kathleen Anderson | 53 | 7.1% | 54 | 7.2% | 60 | 8.1% | 63 | 8.5% | Eliminated | |||
Trent Christensen | 51 | 6.8% | 51 | 6.8% | 56 | 7.5% | Eliminated | |||||
James Christian Biesinger II | 29 | 3.9% | 30 | 4.0% | Eliminated | |||||||
Cindy Thompson | 3 | 0.4% | Eliminated | |||||||||
Inactive Ballots | 0 ballots | 0 ballots | 1 ballots | 1 ballots | 6 ballots | 9 ballots |
Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||||
Trent Christensen | Kim Coleman | Jay McFarland | Burgess Owens | |||||
1 | Jun. 1, 2020 | Utah Debate Commission | Jennifer Napier-Pearce | [86] | P | P | P | P |
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Burgess Owens | 49,456 | 43.5 | |
Republican | Kim Coleman | 27,575 | 24.3 | |
Republican | Jay McFarland | 24,456 | 21.5 | |
Republican | Trent Christensen | 12,165 | 10.7 | |
Total votes | 113,652 | 100.0 |
United Utah Party
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Jonia Broderick, author[87]
General election
[edit]Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Ben McAdams | Burgess Owens | |||||
1 | Oct. 12, 2020 | Utah Debate Commission | Doug Wilks | [88] | P | P |
Endorsements
[edit]Individuals
- Evan McMullin, political activist, former CIA operations officer, and 2016 presidential candidate[89]
Unions
Organizations
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[30] | Tossup | August 14, 2020 |
Inside Elections[31] | Tilt D | June 2, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Lean D | July 2, 2020 |
Politico[33] | Tossup | April 19, 2020 |
Daily Kos[34] | Tossup | June 3, 2020 |
RCP[35] | Tossup | June 9, 2020 |
Niskanen[36] | Tossup | June 7, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Ben McAdams (D) | Burgess Owens (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMG Research[90] | October 12–17, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45%[s] | 46% | 4%[t] | 5% |
47%[u] | 45% | – | – | ||||
43%[v] | 48% | – | – | ||||
RMG Research[91] | September 7–12, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 3%[w] | 11% |
Lighthouse Research[37] | August 31 – September 12, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 47% | 37% | 2%[x] | 14% |
RMG Research[92] | July 27 – August 1, 2020 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 35% | 6% [y] | 24% |
Moore Information (R)[93][C] | July 8–11, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 34% | 43% | 5% [z] | 11% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
With Jay McFarland
with Generic Republican
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
|
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Burgess Owens | 179,688 | 47.7 | |||
Democratic | Ben McAdams (incumbent) | 175,923 | 46.7 | |||
Libertarian | John Molnar | 13,053 | 3.5 | |||
United Utah | Jonia Broderick | 8,037 | 2.1 | |||
Write-in | 29 | 0.0 | ||||
Total votes | 376,730 | 100.0 | ||||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ JC DeYoung with 1%; Chadwick Fairbanks and Zach Hartman with < 1%
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 4%; "other" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%; "other" with 3%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 15%; "other" with 2%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 11%; "other" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%; "other" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%; "other" with 4%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 5%; "other" with 2%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 7%; "other" with 5%
- ^ McNeill (UUP) with 3%; Cummings (C) with 2%; "Other" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" and "other" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%; "other" with 3%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 10%; "other" with 6%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 10%; "other" with 4%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%; Burgess Owens with 2%
- ^ Standard VI response
- ^ Molnar (L) with 3%; Broderick (UUP) with 1%
- ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ^ Molnar (L) with 2%; Broderick (UUP) with 1%
- ^ Molnar (L) with 2%; Broderick (UUP) and "Other" with 0%
- ^ John Molnar (L) with 4%; Jonia Broderick (United Utah Party) with 2%
- ^ John Molnar (L) with 5%; Jonia Broderick (United Utah Party) with <0.5%
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%; "other" with 5%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 8%; "other" with 3%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 6%; "other" with 3%
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "2020 General Election Canvass" (PDF). Lieutenant Governor of Utah. November 23, 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 10, 2020. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
- ^ a b c d Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
- ^ a b Bowman, Bridget (August 28, 2017). "Rob Bishop Says His Next Term Will Be His Last". Roll Call. Retrieved February 16, 2019.
- ^ O'Donoghue, Amy Joi (August 13, 2019). "Morgan County's Tina Cannon running for Rob Bishop's Congressional seat". KSL. Retrieved August 13, 2019.
- ^ a b Hamburger, Jay (March 26, 2020). "Park City-area man starts Congress bid, wanting coronavirus restitution, not a bailout". Park Record.
- ^ Vandenack, Tim (January 22, 2020). "Layton businessman Doug Durbano joins race for 1st District U.S. House seat". Standard-Examiner. Archived from the original on March 4, 2020. Retrieved March 27, 2020.
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- ^ a b c d "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
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- ^ a b c d "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Archived from the original on June 21, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
- ^ a b c d Lighthouse Research
- ^ a b Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2
- ^ a b Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News
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- ^ Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News
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- ^ Krason, Patrick (July 2, 2019). "FEC Form 2 filed April 29 2019". FEC WEBSITE www.fec.gov. Retrieved July 2, 2019.
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- ^ a b Y2 Analytics
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- ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (September 30, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Seventeen House Democrats". End Citizens United.
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- ^ Y2 Analytics
- ^ a b Hinckley Institute
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- ^ Rodgers, Bethany (July 30, 2019). "United Utah Party candidate eyes Ben McAdams' seat". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 1, 2019.
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- ^ RMG Research
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- ^ RMG Research
- ^ Moore Information (R)
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Utah", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Utah: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Utah". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Utah at Ballotpedia
Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
- Rob Latham (L) for Congress
- Chris Stewart (R) for Congress
- Kael Weston (D) for Congress Archived February 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
- John Curtis (R) for Congress
- Thomas G. McNeill (UU) for Congress
- Trey Robinson (I) for Congress
- Devin D. Thorpe (D) for Congress
Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates