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Deutsch2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election
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| Turnout | 57.6% ( 3.8%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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   Lamont: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Stefanowski: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Connecticut |
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The 2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Connecticut. Incumbent Democratic governor Ned Lamont ran for re-election to a second term in office.[1] The race simultaneously took place with the election to the state's Class III Senate seat. This election featured a rematch of the previous 2018 gubernatorial election, pitting Lamont against Republican Bob Stefanowski, whom he previously defeated by 3.2% of the vote.[2] This time Lamont won re-election by a wider margin, becoming the first Democrat to win a gubernatorial election by more than 5 points in the state since 1986.
This was the first time that Tolland County voted Democratic in a gubernatorial election since 1994, Darien since 1912, Wilton since 1884, and New Canaan since 1882.
Democratic convention
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Ned Lamont, incumbent governor[1]
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Susan Bysiewicz, incumbent lieutenant governor[1]
Republican convention
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Bob Stefanowski, financial executive and nominee for governor in 2018[3][4]
Eliminated at convention
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Themis Klarides, former Minority Leader of the Connecticut House of Representatives (running for U.S. Senate)[7]
- Jayme Stevenson, Darien First Selectman and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2018[8] (running for U.S. House)
- Erin Stewart, Mayor of New Britain and candidate for governor and lieutenant governor in 2018[9]
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Third-party candidates and independent candidates
[edit]Libertarian Party
[edit]- Aaron Lewis, founder of The Scribe's Institute
- Running mate: Kevin Skulczyck
Green Party
[edit]- Michelle Louise Bicking, clinical social worker[10]
- Running mate: Cassandra Martineau, social justice activist[10]
Independent Party of Connecticut
[edit]In 2022, the Independent Party nominated its own candidate for governor for the first time ever. In every previous gubernatorial election since its creation, the party had always cross-endorsed the Republican nominee.[11]
- Rob Hotaling, technology and business leader[12]
- Running mate: Dr. Stewart “Chip” Beckett, veterinarian, former chairman Capitol Region Council of Governments, Chairman Glastonbury Town Council
Working Families Party
[edit]The Working Families Party endorsed Lamont and Bysiewicz, giving them access to an additional ballot line.[13] Official designee
- Ned Lamont, incumbent governor
- Running mate: Susan Bysiewicz, incumbent lieutenant governor
Griebel-Frank for CT Party
[edit]The Griebel-Frank for CT Party, which secured 54,741 votes in the 2018 election and is now affiliated with the Forward Party, gained a ballot line for 2022. In September 2022, the party endorsed Lamont and Bysiewicz, giving them access to an unprecedented three ballot lines for the election.[14] Official designee
- Ned Lamont, incumbent governor
- Running mate: Susan Bysiewicz, incumbent lieutenant governor
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Solid D | October 28, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[16] | Solid D | March 4, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Likely D | January 26, 2022 |
| Politico[18] | Lean D | August 12, 2022 |
| RCP[19] | Lean D | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[20] | Likely D | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[21] | Solid D | September 20, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[22] | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
[edit]Ned Lamont (D)
State officials
- Mark Boughton, Commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Revenue Services (2021–present) and former mayor of Danbury (2002–2020) (Republican)[23]
- Mae Flexer, state senator for the 29th district (2015–present)[24]
- Susan Johnson, state senator for the 49th district (2009–present)[24]
Local officials
- Luke Bronin, Mayor of Hartford, Connecticut (2018–present)[25]
Political parties
- Democratic Party of Connecticut
- Griebel-Frank for CT Party (affiliated with the Forward Party)[26]
- Working Families Party[27]
Labor unions
- Connecticut AFL–CIO[28]
- National Education Association[29]
Bob Stefanowski (R)
State officials
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018)[25]
- Pete Ricketts, Governor of Nebraska (2015–2023)[30]
- Chris Sununu, Governor of New Hampshire (2017–present)[31]
- Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[32]
Organizations
- Connecticut Chapter of the Fraternal Order of Police[33]
Political parties
Newspapers
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of January 10, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ned Lamont (D) | $25,518,245 | $26,087,401 | $355,916 |
| Bob Stefenowski (R) | $12,902,700 | $14,498,162 | $17,840 |
| Source: Connecticut State Elections Enforcement Commission[35] | |||
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Ned Lamont (D) | Bob Stefanowski (R) | Other [a] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[36] | September 7–21, 2022 | September 28, 2022 | 53.7% | 39.3% | 7.0% | Lamont +14.4 |
| FiveThirtyEight[37] | May 11 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.9% | 38.5% | 8.6% | Lamont +14.4 |
| 270ToWin[38] | October 16–25, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 51.5% | 39.0% | 9.5% | Lamont +12.5 |
| Average | 52.7% | 38.9% | 8.4% | Lamont +13.8 | ||
Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Ned Lamont (D) | Bob Stefanowski (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Island University[39] | October 24–26, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 24% | 8%[c] | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[40][A] | October 23–24, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 43% | 4%[d] | 4% |
| 50% | 46% | – | 4% | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[41] | October 19–23, 2022 | 1,879 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 56% | 41% | 2%[e] | 1% |
| Emerson College[42] | October 19–21, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 41% | 2%[f] | 5% |
| 53% | 43% | 4%[g] | – | ||||
| SurveyUSA[43] | October 15–18, 2022 | 718 (LV) | – | 52% | 34% | 4%[h] | 10% |
| Fabrizo, Lee & Associates (R)[44][B] | October 10–13, 2022 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 40% | 5%[i] | 10% |
| 50% | 43% | – | 7% | ||||
| Western New England University[45] | September 15–21, 2022 | 766 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 38% | 2%[j] | 8% |
| 626 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 55% | 40% | 2%[k] | 3% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[41] | September 15–19, 2022 | 1,911 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 57% | 40% | 1%[l] | 2% |
| Emerson College[46] | September 7–9, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 4% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[47] | May 19–23, 2022 | 1,660 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 51% | 43% | <1%[m] | 6% |
| Emerson College[48] | May 10–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 38% | – | 12% |
| Sacred Heart University[49] | March 24 – April 11, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 30% | 0% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][C] | October 21–22, 2021 | 729 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 36% | – | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
Ned Lamont vs. Themis Klarides
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Ned Lamont (D) | Themis Klarides (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][C] | October 21–22, 2021 | 729 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 32% | 16% |
Ned Lamont vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Ned Lamont (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][C] | October 21–22, 2021 | 729 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizo Lee (R)[51][B] | October 10–13, 2022 | 1,200 (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | 1%[n] | 11% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ned Lamont | 691,146 | 54.47% | +6.37% | |
| Working Families | Ned Lamont | 16,175 | 1.27% | +0.00% | |
| Griebel-Frank for CT Party | Ned Lamont | 2,865 | 0.23% | −3.66% | |
| Total | Ned Lamont (incumbent) | 710,186 | 55.97% | +6.60% | |
| Republican | Bob Stefanowski | 546,209 | 43.05% | −3.16% | |
| Independent Party | Robert Hotaling | 12,400 | 0.98% | −0.82% | |
| Green | Michelle Louise Bicking (write-in) | 98 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,268,893 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 1,292,847 | 57.57% | |||
| Registered electors | 2,245,844 | ||||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
[edit]Lamont won six out of all eight counties, while Stefenowski only won two.[54]
| County | Ned Lamont Democratic | Bob Stefenowski Republican | Other parties Independent | Total votes cast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Fairfield | 185,900 | 58.8% | 128,434 | 40.6% | 2,056 | 0.6% | 316,390 |
| Hartford | 185,124 | 59.6% | 121,948 | 39.3% | 3,313 | 1.1% | 310,385 |
| Litchfield | 36,591 | 44.8% | 44,282 | 54.2% | 858 | 1.0% | 81,731 |
| Middlesex | 41,052 | 54.9% | 32,940 | 44.0% | 830 | 1.1% | 74,822 |
| New Haven | 157,023 | 54.9% | 126,124 | 44.1% | 2,723 | 1.0% | 285,870 |
| New London | 55,174 | 54.9% | 43,902 | 43.7% | 1,353 | 1.3% | 100,429 |
| Tolland | 31,348 | 52.4% | 27,748 | 46.4% | 753 | 1.3% | 59,849 |
| Windham | 18,264 | 46.3% | 20,688 | 52.5% | 474 | 1.2% | 39,426 |
| Totals | 710,476 | 55.97% | 546,066 | 43.05% | 12,360 | 0.98% | 1,268,902 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Middlesex (largest town: Middletown)
- Tolland (largest town: Vernon)
By congressional district
[edit]Lamont won all 5 congressional districts.[55]
| District | Ned Lamont Democratic | Bob Stefenowski Republican | Other parties Independent | Total votes cast | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | |||
| 1st | 103,281 | 60.83% | 64,555 | 38.02% | 1,960 | 1.15% | 169,796 | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 104,030 | 53.02% | 89,650 | 45.69% | 2,517 | 1.29% | 196,197 | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 108,548 | 56.42% | 82,101 | 42.66% | 1,772 | 0.92% | 192,421 | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 96,180 | 60.29% | 62,389 | 39.10% | 979 | 0.61% | 159,548 | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 78,655 | 50.17% | 76,554 | 48.84% | 1,550 | 0.99% | 156,759 | Jahana Hayes |
| Totals | 710,186 | 55.97% | 546,209 | 43.05% | 12,498 | 0.98% | 1,268,893 | |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Not planning to vote" with 5%; "Another candidate" with 3%
- ^ Hotaling (I) with 4%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%
- ^ Hotaling (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Hotaling (I) with 2%; "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Hotaling (I) with 4%
- ^ Hotaling with 5%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" (volunteered response) with <1%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ a b c "'I love the job.' Lamont officially announces reelection bid for Connecticut governor". News 12 - The Bronx. November 9, 2021.
- ^ "Public Reporting". ctemspublic.pcctg.net. Retrieved October 4, 2022.
- ^ "Bob Stefanowski to Announce Run for Governor". NBCConnecticut.com. January 19, 2022.
- ^ Bergman, Julia (January 19, 2022). "'Lack of affordability' in CT focus for Stefanowski in second run for governor". Connecticut Post.
- ^ "SUSANFORCT2022". SUSANFORCT2022.
- ^ "This Week in CT: Lawmakers conclude legislative session during pandemic turnaround". wtnh.com. June 13, 2021.
- ^ "Themis Klarides announces her run for United States Senate". WFSB. Retrieved January 30, 2022.
- ^ Rennie, Kevin (December 18, 2020). "Kevin Rennie: If Republicans want to think about beating Ned Lamont in 2022, they need to start with some fresh ideas". Hartford Courant. Archived from the original on December 19, 2020. Retrieved March 28, 2021.
- ^ Flood, Bill (March 14, 2021). "New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart says she will not run for governor". Fox61. Archived from the original on March 16, 2021. Retrieved March 28, 2021.
- ^ a b Stuart, Christine (May 19, 2022). "Green Party Nominates Gubernatorial Candidate". CT News Junkie.
- ^ "Working Families Party Regains Third Line on Connecticut Ballot | Ballot Access News". January 10, 2023.
- ^ Dixon, Ken (August 22, 2022). "Independent's panel rebuffs Stefanowski, sets up caucus fight". CT Insider.
- ^ "Connecticut Working Families Party endorses Ned Lamont and Susan Bysiewicz for re-election". Working Families Party. August 15, 2022.
- ^ Pazniokas, Mark (September 8, 2022). "Minor party endorses Lamont after a pledge for election reform". Connecticut Public.
- ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "Connecticut Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
- ^ Ramirez II, Hector (May 14, 2021). "'Governor Lamont has done a great job': CT Republican Mark Boughton endorsing Lamont for re-election". WTNH. Retrieved May 19, 2022.
- ^ a b Muce, Sophia (November 4, 2022). "Democrats Gather at Eastern on Friday to Rally Students to the Polls". CT Examiner.
- ^ a b "Parties Seek to Turn Out the Vote with Weekend Rallies". November 5, 2022.
- ^ "Minor party endorses Lamont after a pledge for election reform". MSN. August 18, 2022.
- ^ "Working Families Party endorses Lamont and Bysiewicz". August 18, 2022.
- ^ "Labor Endorses Slate of Pro-Worker Candidates". June 24, 2022. Retrieved July 4, 2022.
- ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Retrieved October 29, 2022.
- ^ Moritz, John (June 13, 2022). "Amid protest plans, conservative Nebraska governor cancels plans to stump for Stefanowski". CT Insider. Retrieved June 13, 2022.
- ^ Christopher Keating, Hartford Courant (June 22, 2022). "New Hampshire Gov. Sununu, in CT to help Bob Stefanowski raise money, calls impending diesel tax hike 'the dumbest thing anyone could do'". News.yahoo.com. Retrieved June 27, 2022.
- ^ "How Bob Stefanowski is changing his campaign message". October 3, 2022.
- ^ Lemanski, Michael (May 21, 2022). "GOP Hopefuls Stefanowski, Devlin Get Police Group's Endorsement". Patch.
- ^ We endorse Mr. Stefanowski for governor Republican American. October 29, 2022. Retrieved December 19, 2022
- ^ "Document/Filing Search". Connecticut State Elections Enforcement Commission.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ 270ToWin
- ^ Long Island University
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Fabrizo, Lee & Associates (R)
- ^ Western New England University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Sacred Heart University
- ^ a b c Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Fabrizo Lee (R)
- ^ "2022 General Election - Governor". Connecticut Secretary of State.
- ^ "State of Connecticut Elections Database » 2022 Nov 8 :: General Election :: Voting Statistics :: State of Connecticut".
- ^ "Connecticut Governor election results". Politico.
- ^ "General Election - Governor - State of Connecticut". CT.gov.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites