2022 Ontario general election

2022 Ontario general election
← 2018 June 2, 2022 (2022-06-02) Next →
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout43.53% (Decrease13.14pp)[1]
  First party Second party
 
Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre
Last election 76 seats, 40.50% 40 seats, 33.59%
Seats before 67 38
Seats won 83 31
Seat change Increase16 Decrease7
Popular vote 1,912,057 1,111,923
Percentage 40.82% 23.74%
Swing Increase0.32pp Decrease9.85pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Steven Del Duca Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since March 7, 2020 May 16, 2009
Leader's seat Ran in Vaughan—Woodbridge (lost) Guelph
Last election 7 seats, 19.59% 1 seats, 4.60%
Seats before 7 1
Seats won 8 1
Seat change Increase1 Steady
Popular vote 1,116,961 279,152
Percentage 23.85% 5.96%
Swing Increase4.28pp Increase1.36pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
Premier before election

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

The 2022 Ontario general election was held on June 2, 2022, to elect Members of the Provincial Parliament to serve in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario.

The governing Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Doug Ford, were re-elected to a second majority government, winning 7 more seats than they had won in 2018. The NDP retained their status as the Official Opposition, despite losing seats and finishing third in the popular vote, while the Ontario Liberals finished 2nd in the popular vote, but only won 8 seats, a gain of one seat from 2018 but falling short of official party status. The Green Party retained the single seat they won in 2018 while the New Blue and Ontario Party failed to win a seat, both losing their lone sitting MPPs.

The election set a record for the lowest voter turnout in an Ontario provincial election, as only 43.53% of the people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record for low turnout of 48.2% in the 2011 election.[2]

A total of 4,701,959 votes were cast in this election.[1]

Background

[edit]

As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on or before the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[3]

In the June 2018 Ontario general election, the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) led by Doug Ford won a strong majority government. The New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Andrea Horwath became the Official Opposition; this was the first time since 1990 they surpassed their third-place status. The governing Liberal Party led by Premier Kathleen Wynne was decimated, winning only 7 out of the 124 seats in the legislature and being reduced to third-place status. The Green Party won its first seat in history, with leader Mike Schreiner becoming its first Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP).

Wynne resigned as leader immediately after and MPP John Fraser succeeded her as interim leader; he held that post until March 2020, when Wynne's former minister of transportation, Steven Del Duca, became permanent leader of the Liberal Party. Meanwhile, Horwath and Schreiner both remained leader of their parties and had no intention of resigning.

By December 2019, polling showed that the Ford government was as unpopular as the previous Wynne government as a result of not cutting spending enough as promised.[editorializing][4] However, the Progressive Conservatives experienced a surge of support during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic; a Mainstreet Research poll in June 2020 showed the PCs at 42 percent, the Liberals at 28 percent, and the NDP at 23 percent.[5]

On October 5, 2020, Ontario MPPs voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[6][7] Before this vote, the Legislative Assembly of Ontario could have been dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario on a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggered a snap election (the former was extremely unlikely to work against the incumbent government with a majority).

In April 2021, the province experienced a major third wave of COVID-19 infections, and, after quickly reversing government health policies, such as opening and then abruptly closing restaurants, the government was criticized over their handling of COVID-19. This led to the PCs' support dipping, but remaining ahead of the Liberals and NDP.[8]

In late April 2022 – days before the election call – the Ford government released its budget, promising to implement it if the government was reelected. The budget recorded a deficit of $19.9 billion and promised substantial spending on infrastructure (including for their proposed Highway 413) and tax breaks for some workers and seniors.[9]

On May 3, 2022, Premier Doug Ford met with the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario to advise dissolution of the legislature and for writs of election be drawn up.[10]

Timeline

[edit]
42nd Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2018-2022)
Party 2018 Gain/(loss) due to 2022
Resignation
from caucus 		Resignation
as MPP 		Expulsion Switching
allegiance 		Byelection hold
Progressive Conservative 76 (2) (2) (2) (3) 67
New Democratic 40 (1) (1) 38
Liberal 7 (3) 1 2 7
Green 1 1
New Blue N/A 1 1
Ontario Party 0 1 1
Independent 0 3 3 6
Vacant 0 3 3
Total 124 – (2) – – 2 124
Changes in seats held (2018–2022)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Simcoe—Grey November 2, 2018 Jim Wilson[11] █ PC Resignation[a 1] █ Independent
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell November 29, 2018 Amanda Simard[12] █ PC Resignation[a 2] █ Independent
January 16, 2020 █ Independent Joined caucus[13] █ Liberal
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston February 20, 2019 Randy Hillier[14][15] █ PC Suspended[a 3] █ Independent
Ottawa—Vanier July 31, 2019 Nathalie Des Rosiers[16] █ Liberal Resignation[a 4] February 27, 2020[17] Lucille Collard █ Liberal
Orléans September 20, 2019 Marie-France Lalonde[18] █ Liberal Resignation[a 5] February 27, 2020[17] Stephen Blais █ Liberal
Cambridge July 21, 2020 Belinda Karahalios[19] █ PC Expelled[a 6] █ Independent
January 18, 2021 █ Independent Joined caucus[a 7] █ New Blue
York Centre January 15, 2021 Roman Baber[20] █ PC Expelled[a 8] █ Independent
Don Valley East August 17, 2021 Michael Coteau █ Liberal Resignation[a 9] █ Vacant
Chatham-Kent—Leamington August 19, 2021 Rick Nicholls[21] █ PC Expelled[a 10] █ Independent
December 22, 2021 █ Independent Joined caucus █ Ontario Party
Durham October 22, 2021 Lindsey Park[22] █ PC Resignation[a 11] █ Independent
Ajax February 2, 2022 Rod Phillips[23] █ PC Resignation █ Vacant
Elgin—Middlesex—London February 28, 2022 Jeff Yurek[24] █ PC Resignation █ Vacant
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek March 17, 2022 Paul Miller[25] █ New Democratic Expelled[a 12] █ Independent
Brampton North April 22, 2022 Kevin Yarde[26] █ New Democratic Resignation[a 13] █ Independent
  1. ^ from cabinet and caucus due to allegations of sexual misconduct
  2. ^ from caucus after opposing the government's cuts to francophone services
  3. ^ later removed after alleged autism comment, and alleged lack of commitment to the caucus
  4. ^ accepted position at Massey College of the University of Toronto
  5. ^ to run in the 2019 Canadian federal election for its equivalent seat
  6. ^ from caucus after voting against Bill 195
  7. ^ co-created (alongside her husband) the New Blue Party, and officially joined soon after
  8. ^ from caucus for opposing COVID lockdown
  9. ^ to run in the 2021 Canadian federal election for its equivalent seat
  10. ^ from caucus due to refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19
  11. ^ from caucus following party accusations that she had misrepresented her COVID-19 vaccine status.
  12. ^ from caucus during vetting process for re-election for having joined an Islamophobic Facebook group
  13. ^ from caucus after losing nomination contest to be re-elected

2018

[edit]

2020

[edit]

2021

[edit]

2022

[edit]
  • May 3: Writs of the election were drawn up, dissolving the Legislature and officially starting the campaign.[38]
  • May 10: First leaders' debate, organized by Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities.[39]
  • May 16: Second leaders' debate, organized by Broadcast Consortium.[40]
  • June 2: Election day.

Campaign period

[edit]

Candidates not standing for reelection

[edit]

26 MPPs chose not to campaign in the election:

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution
Ajax   Rod Phillips
Beaches—East York   Rima Berns-McGown[41]
Brampton North   Kevin Yarde[a 1]
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound   Bill Walker[42]
Burlington   Jane McKenna[43]
Don Valley East   Michael Coteau
Don Valley West   Kathleen Wynne[44]
Durham   Lindsey Park[a 2][45]
Elgin—Middlesex—London   Jeff Yurek
Essex   Taras Natyshak[46]
Haldimand—Norfolk   Toby Barrett[47]
Hastings—Lennox and Addington   Daryl Kramp[48]
Kingston and the Islands   Ian Arthur[49]
Kitchener South—Hespeler   Amy Fee[50]
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston   Randy Hillier[a 2][35]
Newmarket—Aurora   Christine Elliott[51]
Parry Sound—Muskoka   Norm Miller[52]
Perth—Wellington   Randy Pettapiece[53]
Scarborough Centre   Christina Mitas[54]
Simcoe—Grey   Jim Wilson[a 2][55]
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry   Jim McDonell[56]
Thornhill   Gila Martow[57]
Thunder Bay—Superior North   Michael Gravelle[58]
Toronto Centre   Suze Morrison[59]
Windsor—Tecumseh   Percy Hatfield[60]
York Centre   Roman Baber[a 2][61]
  1. ^ Previously elected under the NDP banner
  2. ^ a b c d Previously elected under the PC banner

Party slogans

[edit]
Party English French (translation)
█ PC "Get It Done."[62][63] "Passer à l'action" ("Taking Action")
█ New Democratic (NDP) "Strong. Ready. Working for you."[64] "Force. Détermination. Pour vous" ("Strength. Determination. For you.")
█ Liberal "The Choice is Yours"[65] "C’est votre choix" ("It's Your Choice.")
█ Green "The Ontario You Want. The Leadership We Need."[66] "L'Ontario que vous voulez. La direction qu'il nous faut." (identical to English slogan)
█ New Blue "Strength. Stability. Liberty. Good government."[67] N/A (unofficial translation: "La force. La stabilité. La liberté. Un bon gouvernement.")
█ Ontario Party "Freedom, Family, & Faith"[68] "Liberté, Famille, et Foi" (identical to English slogan)

Debates

[edit]

Issues

[edit]

Summary

[edit]

The 2022 Ontario Budget, entitled Ontario's Plan to Build, served as the platform of the governing PC Party. The main five themes it emphasized were: growing the clean energy economy with minerals from the Ring of Fire, building infrastructure including Highway 413, the Bradford Bypass and expanding GO service, supporting workers by funding more skilled trades programs, raising the minimum hourly wage to $15 and allowing universities to issue three-year degrees, lowering taxes by eliminating license plate stickers, eliminating tolls and reducing housing development fees and lastly to avoid future COVID-19 lockdowns by hiring more healthcare workers..[69]

The Official Opposition NDP's campaign focused on increased funding for social programs and government services, which would be paid for through higher taxes on businesses and individuals earning over $200,000 per year. Funding would go toward reducing class sizes, raising welfare payments and disability payments, subsidies for black, indigenous and LGBTQ+ entrepreneurs, hiring more healthcare and education staff and increased wages for public servants. The NDP also proposed to expand COVID-19 vaccine mandates, implement a mixed member proportional electoral system, to close down all privately owned long-term care facilities and to stop the construction of new highway projects.

2022 Ontario election – issues and respective party platforms
Issue PC[70][71] NDP[72][73][74] Liberal[75][76][77] Green[78][79][80][81][82] New Blue[83] Ontario Party[84][85]
Budget
  • Eliminate the deficit in the 2027–2028 fiscal year[86]
  • Lower the deficit to $5 billion by 2025-2026[87]
  • Present a balanced budget in the 2026-2027 fiscal year[88]
  • Lower the deficit steadily from $20 billion in 2022–23 to $6 billion in 2025-26
Business subsidies
  • Provide all mining tax revenue to northern Indigenous communities
  • Raise business taxes by an unspecified amount
  • Subsidize 2SLGBTQIA+, Black and Indigenous entrepreneurs, including the restoration of the Indigenous Culture Fund [89]
  • Fund art projects dedicated to diversity, equity and inclusion
  • Create a small business recovery grant
  • Lift the cap on the Risk Management Program
  • Provide a loan guarantee to young farmers
  • Provide another round of Tourism Recovery Program payments
  • Guarantee loans to small businesses
  • Reimburse businesses for costs up to $200 a day for workers to take up to ten paid sick days
  • Eliminate Torstar's online gambling licence (NorthStar Gaming)
COVID-19
  • Add COVID-19 vaccination to the immunization schedule for schools[90]
  • Launch a public inquiry into Ontario's response to COVID-19[91]
  • Require at least three vaccine doses for vaccine passports[92]
  • Give the Chief Medical Officer of Health the authority to override government decisions
  • Add COVID-19 vaccination to the immunization schedule for schools[90]
  • Launch a public inquiry into Ontario's response to COVID-19[93]
  • Launch a public inquiry into Ontario's response to COVID-19[94]
  • Eliminate all COVID-19 restrictions and mandates
  • Prohibit the use of COVID-19 vaccine passports by businesses
  • Expand early treatment for COVID-19
  • Eliminate all COVID-19 restrictions and mandates
  • Prohibit the use of COVID-19 vaccine passports by businesses
  • Outlaw the ability for the provincial government to impose lockdowns
Education
  • Invest $14 billion to build more schools[94]
  • Expand three-year college degrees[95]
  • Spend $42.5 million to expand medical education[94]
  • Cover tuition and other costs for nursing graduates who commit to work in rural and underserved areas[94]
  • End academic streaming
  • Hire 20,000 more teachers
  • Hire more custodians and school maintenance staff
  • Reduce Grade 4 to Grade 8 class sizes to 24
  • Reduce kindergarten class sizes to 26
  • Prioritize Ontario based authors and publishers in schools
  • Eliminate EQAO testing
  • Scrap mandatory online high school courses
  • Convert all OSAP loans to grants
  • Double the Rural and Northern Education Fund
  • Increase funding for special education
  • Increase the number of high school trades and shop classes[96]
  • Forgive student loan interest
  • End academic streaming
  • Spend $10 billion building and repairing schools[97]
  • Hire 10,000 more teachers[97]
  • Hire 5,000 more special education workers
  • Cap class sizes at 20 students for all grades
  • Restore Grade 13 as an option for secondary school students for a minimum of 4 years[98]
  • Eliminate EQAO tests and replace with new assessment strategy
  • Double current OSAP funding[93]
  • Continue the tuition freeze
  • Eliminate interest on provincial student loans
  • Cover tuition costs for medical and nursing students working in a rural or remote communities[93]
  • Provide free tuition for all ECE programs
  • Expand nursing schools by 7% every year[94]
  • Reduce Grade 4 to Grade 8 class sizes to 24[94]
  • Reduce kindergarten class sizes to 26[94]
  • Introduce a school lunch program[94]
  • Create a school voucher program
  • Remove Critical Race Theory from the curriculum
  • Remove gender theory from the curriculum
  • Allow the creation of charter schools
  • Make it illegal for teachers to promote partisan political positions in the classroom
  • Allow parents to opt their children out of certain school lessons
  • Require universities to maintain free speech on campus
  • Require universities to hire ideologically diverse educators
  • Lower tuition fees for degrees with high labour market demand
Elections
  • Replace the electoral system with Mixed Member Proportional
  • Reduce annual political donation limits to $1600
  • Ban protests that incite racist, homophobic, transphobic or xenophobic hate
  • Introduce ranked ballots for the next provincial election followed by an independent review[93]
  • Allow municipalities the usage of ranked ballot voting systems for elections
  • Explore potential changes such as lowering the voting age, voting on weekends and expanded advanced voting[93]
  • Create citizens assembly on electoral reform with mandate to provide binding recommendation to ensure that every vote counts
  • Allow municipalities the usage of ranked ballot voting systems for elections
  • Limit total contribution for municipal elections to $1000 for all candidates, combined
  • Reduce donation limits for provincial political parties, candidates, and constituency associations to $1000 per year
  • Restore Auditor General oversight of government advertising
  • Require a five-year gap before MPPs and government advisors can register as lobbyists
  • Eliminate subsidies to political parties
  • Establish a process for voters to recall their MPP if they fail to represent them
Energy and Environment
  • Create a new provincial park[99]
  • Subsidize the manufacturing of electric vehicles [100]
  • Create a cap-and-trade system [101]
  • Ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035
  • Create a $10,000 tax credit for the purchase of electric vehicles
  • Ban the conversion of any agricultural land into development
  • Expand the Greenbelt
  • Plant one billion trees by 2030 [102]
  • Ban non-medical single-use plastics by 2024 [103]
  • Upgrade public school buildings to make them carbon neutral
  • Create five new provincial parks[104]
  • Ban new natural gas plants
  • Plant 100 million trees per year until 2030[105]
  • Protect 30% of Ontario's land and expand the Greenbelt
  • Ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035[93]
  • Create a $8,000 tax credit for the purchase or lease of electric vehicles and $1,500 for respective charging equipment[106]
  • Eliminate connection fees for rooftop solar charging panels[93]
  • Restrict some single-use plastics
  • Provide grants and interest-free loans to retrofit homes and buildings[93]
  • Reduce electricity subsidies by $20 billion over 10 years
  • Eliminate gas-powered power plants
  • Oppose the building of new nuclear power plants or uranium mines[107]
  • Protect 30% of Ontario's land and double the size of the Greenbelt [108]
  • Ban the dumping of untreated waste into bodies of water
  • Fund municipal governments to upgrade sewage treatment
Healthcare
  • Build new hospitals in Niagara Falls; Windsor-Essex[109][110]
  • Build 3,000 new hospital beds in 2022-2023
  • Provide publicly funded prescriptions to low-income seniors
  • Provide publicly funded dental care to low-income seniors
  • Offer incentive payments of up to $5,000 over the next two years to nurses who stay in the job[94]
  • Repeal Bill 124
  • Establish provincial standards for home-care services and providers[94]
  • Build 30,000 mental health supportive housing spaces over ten years
  • Provide publicly funded prescriptions to all residents
  • Provide publicly funded dental care to all residents
  • Increase hospital funding[94]
  • Add additional funding to clear the surgical backlog[94]
  • Eliminate all user fees in healthcare
  • Collect race-based data on health care
  • Hire 22,000 more nurses
  • Hire 300 more physicians in Northern Ontario
  • Stop mergers of public health units
  • Provide $400 per month to informal caregivers
  • Publicly fund contraception
  • Repeal Bill 124
  • Build 3,000 new hospital beds
  • Hire 100,000 new health care workers[111]
  • Introduce a Portable Benefits Plan for those without or lacking in their employer benefits; provides drug, dental, vision, and mental health coverage[93]
  • Build 15,000 mental health supportive housing spaces
  • Fully fund clinical costs for hospices
  • Build new hospitals in Windsor, South Niagara, Markdale, Moosonee, Moose Factory Island, Innisfil, Whitby and Ottawa[93]
  • Build 60,000 mental health supportive housing spaces
  • Increase mental health funding[94]
  • Provide publicly funded prescriptions[94]
  • Provide publicly funded dental care[94]
  • Create a dedicated crisis response line for mental health
  • Cover mental health therapy through public funding
  • Work on clearing the backlog of procedures
  • Do not fire healthcare workers who refuse to participate in abortion or assisted-suicide
  • End the prohibition on private health facilities and insurance
  • Prohibit sex-change surgeries for minors
  • Require parental consent for medical treatment for children
Housing
  • Use MZOs to approve the construction of more housing supply
  • Implement rent control
  • Subsidize rent for low-income households
  • End exclusionary zoning
  • Restore in-person hearings at the Landlord and Tenant Board[112]
  • Implement rent control
  • Implement a ban on foreign buyers for at least four years[93]
  • Fund the construction of 138,000 public housing units, of which 22,000 will be dedicated to off-reserve indigenous residents
  • Ban the use of MZOs
  • Implement rent control including vacancy control
  • Fund the construction of 100,000 public housing units
  • Restore 260,000 community housing units
  • Provide portable housing benefits to 311,000 people
  • End blind bidding[94]
  • Require home inspections at the seller's expense[94]
Indigenous
  • Create an indigenous curriculum
  • Boost funding for Indigenous language education[113]
  • Support more Indigenous representation on boards
  • Clean up the English-Wabigoon River system[113]
  • Establish a provincial strategy to address the suicide crisis among Indigenous youth[113]
  • Commission a monument that recognizes the victims of the residential school system[113]
  • Establish the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation as a statutory holiday[113]
  • Strengthen fire protection[114]
  • Mandate the inclusion of residential schools into the curriculum[115]
  • Reform child welfare and protection services by ensuring Indigenous communities are served by Indigenous-led providers
  • Wortk with NCTR to identify, collect, and provide copies of all records relevant to the history and legacy of the residential school system in Ontario
  • Make the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation a statutory holiday
  • Restore funding for the Indigenous curriculum program
  • Develop a mandatory curriculum on colonialism and residential schools, treaties, and Indigenous histories and experiences
Law Enforcement
Long-term care
  • Build 30,000 long-term care beds over six years [93][116]
  • Create a standardized survey of long-term care residents[94]
  • Phase out for-profit long-term care homes[117]
  • Build 50,000 long-term care beds [93][118]
  • Hire 10,000 more PSWs
  • Raise pay for PSWs by at least $5 per hour[94]
  • Phase out for-profit long-term care homes[119]
  • Build 30,000 long-term care beds over six years; redevelop an additional 28,000 existing spaces[93][120]
  • Phase out for-profit long-term care homes[94]
Regulation
  • Raise the minimum wage to $20/h over 5 years[122][123]
  • Ban licensed sport shooters from owning handguns
  • Provide ten publicly funded sick days for all workers
  • Increase the number of jobs covered under Employment Standards and the Workplace Safety and Insurance Act[96]
  • Implement price controls on gasoline
  • Require automobile insurance businesses to charge the same premiums in all regions of Ontario
  • Ban the issuing of payday loans
  • Require the hiring of more women and racial minorities
  • Implement UNDRIP
  • Require mandatory anti-oppression and anti-bias training for all public employees and politicians
  • Subject all government programs and regulations to a gender-based analysis
  • Raise the minimum wage to $16/h and implement regional living wages[124][125]
  • Ban licensed sport shooters from owning handguns
  • Provide ten paid sick days for all workers[124][126]
  • Raise the minimum wage each year by $1, starting at $16 in 2022, with a top-up in cities where the cost of living is higher
  • Increase the number of provincially-legislated paid sick days from three to ten, and provide small businesses financial support to fund the program
  • Ban employers from requiring a sick note from a medical practitioner when an employee is ill
  • Prohibit lobbyists from being involved in political parties
  • Make it illegal to conduct fraud in internal political party votes
  • Reduce immigration levels to match housing supply levels
  • Prohibit foreigners from buying houses
  • Repeal Bill 163
Social assistance
  • Increase ODSP payments by 5%
  • Increase ODSP payments by 20%
  • Increase OW payments by 20%
  • Conduct a basic income pilot project
  • Increase ODSP payments by 20%[127]
  • Increase OW payments by 10%[115]
  • Increase Old Age Security by $1,000 per year[128]
  • Bring back the basic income pilot[93][129]
  • Increase ODSP payments by 100%[130]
Taxation
  • Remove license plate sticker requirements and their respective fees[131]
  • Reduce gasoline taxes by 5.7 cents per litre for six months starting on July 1, 2022[121]
  • Reduce fuel taxes by 5.3 cents per litre starting on July 1, 2022
  • Increase the Non-Resident Speculation Tax and extend its reach beyond the GTHA[94]
  • Extend qualification for the LIFT tax credit to $50,000[132]
  • Create an Ontario Seniors Care at Home Tax Credit[133]
  • Freeze taxes for low and middle income families[134]
  • Create a tax on housing speculation
  • Introduce an annual vacancy tax on residential property[112]
  • Maintain the Non-Resident Speculation Tax at 20%[112]
  • Raise taxes on upper income workers by an unspecified amount
  • Create a filming tax-credit
  • Extend the Staycation tax credit[96]
  • Remove the provincial sales tax from prepared meals under $20 (increase from $4)[93][135]
  • Increase the corporate tax rate by 1% on corporations with a profit above $1 billion
  • Increase the income tax rate by 2% on income over $500,000
  • Introduce a 5% tax on vacant homes for non-Canadian owners; 2% for Canadian owners[93]
  • Introduce a ‘use it or lose it’ tax on developers sitting on land ready for development
  • Create a $75 tax credit for each winter tire installed
  • Increase the eligibility for the Low-Income Individuals and Families (LIFT) tax credit from $38,000 to $50,000[136]
  • Rebate Northern municipalities 5% of the provincial mining tax
  • Suspend corporate income tax collection for small businesses for 2022 and 2023[137]
  • Add a 1% surtax onto the income taxes of the top 10% earners[94]
  • Introduce a 20% multiple homes speculation tax on third and additional properties
  • Eliminate the PST on gasoline and diesel
Transportation
  • Restore passenger rail service to Northern Ontario
  • Cancel the construction of Highway 413 and the Bradford Bypass
  • Require transit projects to make Canadian-made vehicles
  • Remove tolls on Highway 407 for commercial drivers[139]
  • Pursue penalty fees from 407 ETR for failing to meet a minimum standard of traffic in 2020 and 2021[139]
  • Designate Highways 11 and 17 as Class 1 highways
  • Four-lane Highway 69, Highway 11/17, Highway 3; the Morriston bypass
  • Move ahead with the Thunder Bay Expressway Interchange Project
  • Expand Highway 7 between Kitchener and Guelph
  • Fund two-way all-day GO Transit to Kitchener-Waterloo
  • Extend the Hurontario LRT to downtown Brampton
  • Fund 50% of municipal transit costs
  • Restore the Northlander service to Northern Ontario within two years[93]
  • Cancel the construction of Highway 413
  • Reassess the proposed Bradford Bypass' environmental impact[93]
  • Reduce all transit fares in Ontario to $1 per ride[140]
  • Cut the cost for monthly passes to $40 per month[105]
  • Make public transit publicly funded for veterans
  • Widen Highway 401 at targeted bottlenecks, including from Milton to Mississauga and between Pickering and Bowmanville[93]
  • Build a new Highway 7 between Guelph and Kitchener
  • Expand Highway 3 between Windsor and Leamington
  • Complete the four-laning of Highway 69 and Highway 11/17 between Thunder Bay and Nipigon by 2025[93]
  • Build the Ontario Line Subway, Scarborough Subway Extension, Yonge North Subway Extension and Eglinton Crosstown West Extension[93]
  • Fund two-way all-day GO Transit to Milton
  • Extend GO Transit trains to Bowmanville[93]
  • Cancel the construction of Highway 413
  • Cut transit fares by 50% for at least 3 months[94]
  • Fund 50% of municipal transit operating expenses[94]
  • Expand GO Transit services[94]
Unions
  • Allow contractors to unionize
  • Allow any workplace to unionize when 55% of workers endorse unionization
  • Ban strikebreakers
  • Allow students to unionize
  • Allow contractors to unionize

Endorsements

[edit]
Endorsements received by each party
Type PC NDP Liberal Green New Blue Ontario Party
Media
  • Toronto Star[143] endorsed the NDP, Liberals, and Greens, and encouraged Ontarians to vote strategically to prevent a PC majority
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations

Opinion polls

[edit]

Campaign polls

[edit]

Graph of polling completed during the 2022 Ontario election campaign

Opinion polls during campaign period
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source PC NDP Liberal Green New Blue Ontario Other Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
Forum Research June 1, 2022 [p 1] 40.3 23.2 24.5 6.5 — — 5.5 ±3.1% 1,032 IVR 15.8
Research Co. June 1, 2022 [p 2] 39 23 26 6 3 1 1 +3.8% 659 Online 13
EKOS June 1, 2022 [p 3] 37 23.5 24.7 8.7 4.4 — 2 +2.6% 1,430 IVR 12.3
Abacus Data June 1, 2022 [p 4] 40 22 27 4 4 — 3 N/A 1,043 Online 13
Mainstreet Research June 1, 2022 [p 5] 38.9 22.8 24.2 9.4 — — 4.7 +2.2% 2,034 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 14.7
Ipsos May 31, 2022 [p 6] 41 25 24 6 — — 4 +2.2% 2,501 Telephone/Online 16
Nanos Research May 31, 2022 [p 7] 38.8 24.7 26.3 6.1 2 2.1 0.2 ±4.5% 465 Telephone/Online 12.5
Mainstreet Research May 31, 2022 [p 5] 35.4 23.9 26.2 9.2 — — 5.2 +2.1% 2,086 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.2
Leger May 30, 2022 [p 8] 40 24 25 5 3 2 1 N/A 1,334 Online 15
Innovative Research Group May 30, 2022 [p 9] 34 24 29 8 3 — 2 N/A 637 Online 5
Mainstreet Research May 30, 2022 [p 5] 39.3 22.5 26.8 6.4 — — 5.1 +2.1% 2,089 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 12.5
Earnscliffe/Leger May 29, 2022 [p 10] 39 24 26 5 — — 6 N/A 1,000 Online 13
Mainstreet Research May 29, 2022 [p 5] 36.6 23.5 27.2 6.8 — — 5.8 +2.2% 1,921 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.4
Counsel May 28, 2022 [p 11] 39.6 22.5 25.1 7.1 — — 5.7 +2% 2,411 Online 14.5
Mainstreet Research May 28, 2022 [p 5] 37.3 23.2 26.3 7.1 — — 6.1 +2.3% 1,789 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 11
Mainstreet Research May 27, 2022 [p 5] 39.1 20.8 26.5 7.8 — — 5.8 +2.4% 1,694 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 12.6
Innovative Research Group May 27, 2022 [p 12] 40 21 28 9 — — 3 N/A 492 Telephone 12
Mainstreet Research May 26, 2022 [p 5] 38.3 21.6 26.9 7.6 — — 5.7 +2.4% 1,704 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 11.4
Angus Reid May 25, 2022 [p 13] 38 24 26 7 — — 5 N/A 1,331 Online 12
EKOS May 25, 2022 [p 14] 33.7 23.8 26.9 8 4.7 — 3 +3.1% 1,017 IVR 6.8
Mainstreet Research May 25, 2022 [p 5] 36 23.5 26.1 8.5 — — 5.9 +2.4% 1,622 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.9
Mainstreet Research May 24, 2022 [p 5] 35.3 23.1 27.2 8 — — 6.4 +2.4% 1,724 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 8.1
Leger May 23, 2022 [p 15] 38 24 26 6 3 2 1 N/A 1,324 Online 12
Innovative Research Group May 23, 2022 [p 16] 35 23 30 9 — — 4 N/A 439 Online 5
Mainstreet Research May 23, 2022 [p 5] 35.4 24.2 25.2 7.8 — — 7.4 +2.4% 1,696 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 10.2
Nanos Research May 22, 2022 [p 17] 37.3 23.2 28 6.3 3 1.7 0.3 ±4.5% 479 Telephone/Online 9.3
Earnscliffe/Leger May 22, 2022 [p 18] 36 24 28 6 — — 6 N/A 1,000 Online 8
EKOS May 22, 2022 [p 19] 34.5 24.1 26.7 6.6 5.3 — 2.7 +3.2% 948 IVR 7.8
Mainstreet Research May 22, 2022 [p 5] 35 23.8 25.1 8.2 — — 7.9 +2.4% 1,709 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.9
Abacus Data May 21, 2022 [p 20] 36 24 28 5 — — 8 N/A 1,228 Online 8
Mainstreet Research May 21, 2022 [p 5] 34.4 25.1 26.7 7.2 — — 6.5 +2.4% 1,679 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 7.7
Mainstreet Research May 20, 2022 [p 5] 35.5 26.1 25.7 6.5 — — 6.3 +2.4% 1,734 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.4
Pollara May 19, 2022 [p 21] 40 21 27 8 — — 4 +2.5% 1,514 Telephone 13
Ipsos May 19, 2022 [p 22] 38 23 28 6 — — 5 +2.9% 1,501 Telephone/Online 10
Innovative Research Group May 19, 2022 [p 23] 36 26 28 8 — — 2 N/A 606 Online 8
Mainstreet Research May 19, 2022 [p 5] 36.9 24.7 26.2 5.1 — — 7.2 +2.4% 1,686 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 10.7
Counsel May 18, 2022 [p 24] 36.9 24.3 27.5 6.1 — — 5.3 +2.1% 2,206 Online 9.4
Mainstreet Research May 18, 2022 [p 5] 37.2 23.4 24.8 6.7 — — 7.8 +2.4% 1,720 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 12.8
Nanos Research May 17, 2022 [p 25] 36.1 19.8 29.3 7.3 4.7 1.7 1.1 ±4.5% 484 Telephone/Online 6.8
Research Co. May 17, 2022 [p 26] 34 23 29 7 3 1 2 +4% 602 Online 5
EKOS May 17, 2022 [p 19] 40.7 23.9 24.3 5.1 — — 6.1 +4% 593 IVR 16.4
Mainstreet Research May 17, 2022 [p 5] 36.8 23.1 27.2 5.6 — — 7.3 +2.4% 1,675 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.6
Innovative Research Group May 16, 2022 [p 27] 36 23 31 7 — — 4 N/A 603 Online 5
Mainstreet Research May 16, 2022 [p 5] 37.9 22.8 27.7 4.9 — — 6.8 +2.4% 1,675 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 10.2
Earnscliffe/Leger May 15, 2022 [p 28] 37 23 28 7 — — 5 N/A 1,000 Online 9
Leger May 15, 2022 [p 29] 37 23 28 5 3 3 1 N/A 830 Online 9
Abacus Data May 15, 2022 [p 30] 35 24 28 5 — — 7 N/A 798 Online 7
Mainstreet Research May 15, 2022 [p 5] 35.5 24.8 26.8 4.4 — — 8.5 +2.3% 1,792 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 8.7
Mainstreet Research May 14, 2022 [p 5] 36 25.4 27.6 4.1 — — 7 +2.3% 1,764 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 8.4
Mainstreet Research May 13, 2022 [p 5] 36 24.4 26.8 5.2 — — 7.5 +2.3% 1,773 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.2
Mainstreet Research May 12, 2022 [p 5] 36.6 22.6 28.6 5.2 — — 7 +2.4% 1,639 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 8
Mainstreet Research May 11, 2022 [p 5] 38.8 21.1 28.1 5.4 — — 6.6 +2.4% 1,673 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 10.7
Mainstreet Research May 10, 2022 [p 5] 39.0 22.3 27.1 4.6 — — 7 +2.4% 1,639 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 11.9
Mainstreet Research May 9, 2022 [p 5] 36.5 23.5 29 4.9 — — 6.1 +2.5% 1,639 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 7.5
Abacus Data May 9, 2022 [p 31] 38 22 29 5 — — 7 N/A 1,208 Online 9
Innovative Research Group May 9, 2022 [p 32] 40 24 28 6 — — 3 N/A 600 Online 12
EKOS May 9, 2022 [p 33] 33.9 25.4 29.3 5.1 — — 6.3 +3.1% 1,000 IVR 4.6
Nanos Research May 8, 2022 [p 34] 35.4 23.7 30.4 4.2 3.6 1.4 1.2 ±4.4% 500 Telephone/Online 5.0
Earnscliffe/Leger May 8, 2022 [p 35] 39 24 27 6 — — 3 N/A 1,000 Online 12
Leger May 8, 2022 [p 36] 39 25 26 4 3 1 2 N/A 819 Online 13
Mainstreet Research May 8, 2022 [p 5] 37 23 30 5 — — 5 +2.5% 1,515 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 7
Mainstreet Research May 7, 2022 [p 5] 36.3 24.2 30.2 4.6 — — 4.6 +2.5% 1,496 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 6.1
Mainstreet Research May 6, 2022 [p 5] 38.3 24.5 29.1 4 — — 4 +2.5% 1,532 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.2
Mainstreet Research May 5, 2022 [p 5] 37.4 25.7 28.1 4.6 — — 4.2 ±2.7% 1,335 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.3
Forum Research May 4, 2022 [p 37] 37 26 29 4 — — 4 ±3% 1,541 IVR 8
Mainstreet Research May 4, 2022 [p 5] 36.7 25.1 27.1 5.7 — — 5.3 ±2.7% 1,335 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 9.6

Pre-campaign polls

[edit]

Opinion polling before campaign period began
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source PC NDP Liberal Green New Blue Ontario Other Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
Nanos Research May 2, 2022 [p 38] 36.9 23.7 30.4 4.3 0.9 2.8 0.8 ±4.4% 500 Telephone/Online 6.5
Innovative Research Group May 2, 2022 [p 39] 37 24 29 7 — — 2 N/A 1,409 Online 8
Earnscliffe/Leger May 1, 2022 [p 40] 35 24 28 7 — — 6 N/A 1,001 Online 7
Ipsos May 1, 2022 [p 41] 39 25 26 6 — — 5 ±2.9% 1,501 Telephone/Online 13
Mainstreet Research April 27, 2022 [p 5] 38.1 18.1 30.4 5.1 — — 8.3 ±2.6% 1,422 IVR 7.7
Earnscliffe/Leger April 24, 2022 [p 42] 38 25 28 5 — — 5 N/A 1,000 Online 10
Abacus Data April 19, 2022 [p 43] 36 23 32 6 — — 4 ±2.1% 1,500 Online 4
Mainstreet Research April 19, 2022 [p 5] 39.6 21.2 25.4 5.6 — — 7.6 ±2.8% 1,211 IVR 14.2
Ipsos April 14, 2022 [p 44] 35 23 32 5 — — 5 ±3.5% 1,001 Online 3
Mainstreet Research April 12, 2022 [p 5] 36 24 28 5 — — 6 ±2.8% 1239 IVR 8
Mainstreet Research April 6, 2022 [p 5] 39.2 24.1 25.8 3.4 — — 7.5 ±2.7% 1,289 IVR 13.4
Mainstreet Research March 31, 2022 [p 45] 36 22 31 4 — — 7 ±2.8% 1,252 IVR 5
Leger March 28, 2022 [p 46] 39 24 25 5 5 — 3 ±3.1% 1,001 Online 14
Angus Reid March 15, 2022 [p 47] 37 29 25 4 — — 5 ±3% 1,063 Online 8
Ipsos March 15, 2022 [p 48] 38 24 28 4 — — 5 ±3.8% 850 Online 10
Mainstreet Research March 13, 2022 [p 49] 33.9 25.7 27.8 5 — — 7.6 ±3% 1,026 IVR 6.1
Leger February 27, 2022 [p 50] 39 27 27 3 2 — 2[a] ±3.1% 1,001 Online 12
Mainstreet Research January 25, 2022 [p 51] 34.6 22.4 27.3 3.5 — — 12.3 ±3% 882 IVR 7.3
Leger January 24, 2022 [p 52] 37 25 26 7 3 — 5[b] ±3.1% 1,000 Online 11
Counsel January 23, 2022 [p 53] 34.9 30.5 24.2 4.4 — — 6 ±2.1% 2,273 Online 4.4
EKOS January 17, 2022 [p 54] 34.8 26.6 26.3 4.9 — — 7.5 ±3.5% 844 IVR 8.2
Abacus Data January 12, 2022 [p 55] 37 25 28 5 — — 2.5 ±3.1% 1,210 Online 9
Angus Reid January 12, 2022 [p 56] 33 36 19 4 — — 8 N/A 909 Online 3
Innovative Research Group January 11, 2022 [p 57] 35 22 36 5 — — 2 N/A 428 Online 1
Mainstreet Research January 7, 2022 [p 58] 30.6 27.0 27.9 5.5 — — 9.0 ±2.7% 1,246 IVR 2.7
December 14, 2021 Derek Sloan announced as the Leader of the Ontario Party
Leger December 13, 2021 [p 59] 38 28 25 5 2 — 3 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 10
EKOS November 25, 2021 [p 60] 32.8 23.1 28.3 5.2 — — 10.5 ±4.1% 569 IVR 4.5
Innovative Research Group November 17, 2021 [p 61] 34.8 27 32.6 3.4 — — 2.2 N/A 1,000 Online 2.2
Leger November 14, 2021 [p 62] 34 26 31 6 2 — 1 ±3.1% 1,001 Online 3
Leger October 10, 2021 [p 63] 35 25 30 5 — — 5 ±3.1% 1,003 Online 5
Angus Reid October 3, 2021 [p 64] 34 32 25 4 — — 5 N/A 910 Online 2
Angus Reid June 7, 2021 [p 65] 37 33 22 6 — — 3 ±2% 791 Online 4
Leger May 23, 2021 [p 66] 34 25 26 9 — — — ±3.1% 1,001 Online 8
Mainstreet Research May 16, 2021 [p 67] 32.7 28.2 26.9 6.3 — — 5.9 ±3% 958 IVR 4.5
Campaign Research May 8, 2021 [p 68] 36 25 28 7 — — 4 ±2% 2,009 Online 8
Innovative Research Group May 4, 2021 [p 69] 32 22 36 8 — — 2 N/A 481 Online 4
Abacus Data April 21, 2021 [p 70] 34 23 35 5 — — 2 ±3.1% 1,007 Online 1
Innovative Research Group April 20, 2021 [p 71] 30 26 35 8 — — 1 N/A 800 Online 5
Abacus Data April 14, 2021 [p 72] 34 23 34 5 — — 4 ±3.5% 817 Online 0
Innovative Research Group April 13, 2021 [p 73] 32 24 33 8 — — 2 N/A 704 Online 1
EKOS April 12, 2021 [p 74] 34.6 23.5 29.9 8.9 — — 3 ±2.8% 1,204 IVR 4.7
Campaign Research April 6, 2021 [p 75] 41 22 24 10 — — 2 ±2.3% 1,886 Online 17
Leger March 22, 2021 [p 76] 38 28 23 8 — — 3 ±3.1% 1,002 Online 10
Campaign Research March 11, 2021 [p 77] 43 25 20 9 — — 3 ±2.7% 1,344 Online 18
Mainstreet Research February 16, 2021 [p 78] 43 22 25 6 — — 4 ±3.08% 1,011 IVR 18
Campaign Research January 31, 2021 [p 79] 44 25 21 8 — — 3 ±2.6% 1,427 Online 19
Abacus Data January 12, 2021 [p 80] 34 25 29 8 — — 3 ±3.48% 793 Online 5
Mainstreet Research December 5, 2020 [p 81] 46.2 23.4 19.9 6.2 — — 4.3 ±2.94% 1,014 IVR 22.8
Campaign Research December 3, 2020 [p 82] 45 20 24 8 — — 5 ±3% 1,001 Online 21
Angus Reid November 30, 2020 [p 83] 42 28 22 5 — — 3 N/A 1,049 Online 14
Campaign Research November 2, 2020 [p 84] 48 21 23 7 — — 1 ±3% 1,118 Online 25
Abacus Data October 30, 2020 [p 85] 36 25 29 7 — — 3 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 7
October 12, 2020 Jim Karahalios forms the New Blue Party
Abacus Data October 12, 2020 [p 86] 36 29 26 6 — — 2 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 7
Campaign Research October 2, 2020 [p 87] 46 24 20 9 — — 2 ±3% 1,017 Online 22
Campaign Research September 3, 2020 [p 88] 48 22 24 6 — — 2 ±3% 1,129 Online 24
Angus Reid September 1, 2020 [p 89] 45 28 22 4 — — 1 ±3% 1,026 Online 17
Campaign Research August 13, 2020 [p 90] 41 23 26 8 — — 3 ±2% 2,013 Online 15
Innovative Research Group July 20, 2020 [p 91] 36 18 37 8 — — 1 N/A 974 Online 1
Campaign Research July 10, 2020 [p 92] 45 20 27 7 — — 1 ±3% 1,395 Online 18
Innovative Research Group June 23, 2020 [p 93] 31 21 39 9 — — 1 N/A 838 Online 8
Mainstreet Research June 7, 2020 [p 94] 41.8 23.0 27.7 5.5 — — 2.0 ±3% 1,068 IVR 14.1
Campaign Research June 2, 2020 [p 95] 44 22 27 6 — — 2 ±2.5% 1,512 Online 17
Innovative Research Group June 1, 2020 [p 96] 33 20 38 9 — — 0 N/A 698 Online 5
Angus Reid May 24, 2020 [p 97] 43 26 25 6 — — 1 N/A 1,061 Online 17
Abacus Data May 22, 2020 [p 98] 36 19 38 5 — — 2 ±4.1% 597 Online 2
Innovative Research Group May 5, 2020 [p 99] 34 18 39 7 — — 1 N/A 791 Online 5
EKOS March 26, 2020 [p 100] 31.5 17.9 40.4 7.1 — — 3.1 ±3.5% 774 IVR 8.9
Mainstreet Research March 20, 2020 [p 101] 33.1 23.2 33.0 6.9 — — 3.8 ±2.73% 1,017 IVR 0.1
7 March 2020 Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Campaign Research March 5, 2020 [p 102] 32 28 28 10 — — 2 ±2.9% 1,144 Online 4
Angus Reid February 28, 2020 [p 103] 36 31 24 8 — — 1 ±3.0% 1,051 Online 5
Campaign Research February 26, 2020 [p 104] 32 28 29 9 — — 3 ±3.1% 1,003 Online 3
Campaign Research February 9, 2020 [p 105] 30 26 30 11 — — 3 ±2.5% 1,536 Online 0
EKOS January 19, 2020 [p 106] 31.1 21.2 36.2 9.1 — — 2.3 ±3.9% 634 IVR 5.1
Pollara January 11, 2020 [p 107] 29 27 33 9 — — 2 ±2.1% 2,198 Online 4
EKOS December 10, 2019 [p 108] 29.9 24.4 32.4 9.4 — — 3.9 ±3.4% 811 IVR 2.5
Campaign Research September 9, 2019 [p 109] 32 27 28 11 — — 2 ±3.17% 957 Online 4
Corbett Communications August 16, 2019 [p 110] 30 28 30 11 — — 2 ±3.0% 1,099 Online 0
Corbett Communications July 10, 2019 [p 111] 28 26 28 15 — — 3 ±3.0% 936 Online 0
Corbett Communications June 6, 2019 [p 112] 32 27 26 13 — — 1 ±3.0% 1,555 Online 5
Mainstreet Research May 22, 2019 [p 113] 22.4 24.2 39.9 11.7 — — 1.8 ±3.1% 996 IVR 15.7
Ipsos May 21, 2019 [p 114] 30 29 32 — — — 10 ±3.5% 1,000 Online 2
Corbett Communications May 3, 2019 [p 115] 35 25 27 12 — — 1 ±2.4% 1,836 Online 8
Pollara May 1, 2019 [p 116] 30 31 26 11 — — 1 ±2.5% 1,527 Online 1
Mainstreet Research March 22, 2019 [p 117] 34.4 26.6 26.0 9.4 — — 3.6 ±2.73% 1,290 IVR 7.8
Innovative Research Group January 24, 2019 [p 118] 33 23 36 7 — — 1 751 Online 3
Mainstreet Research January 17, 2019 [p 119] 41.4 27.0 22.6 7.0 — — 2.2 ±2.92% 1,127 IVR 14.4
EKOS December 3, 2018 [p 120] 34.3 26.1 28.0 9.4 — — 2.3 ±3.1% 1,025 IVR 6.3
Campaign Research November 9, 2018 [p 121] 34 25 32 7 — — 2 ±2.3% 1,830 Online 2
Mainstreet Research November 7, 2018 [p 122] 42.2 26.5 21.3 6.4 — — 3.5 ±2.79% 1,229 IVR 15.7
Innovative Research Group October 28, 2018 [p 123] 35 25 32 7 — — 1 1,628 Online 3
Abacus Data October 1, 2018 [p 124] 36 29 24 8 — — 3 1,500 Online 7
Mainstreet Research July 17, 2018 [p 125] 41.7 27.8 21.3 6.7 — — 2.5 ±2.27% 1,861 IVR 13.9
29 June 2018 Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario
Innovative Research Group June 21, 2018 [p 118] 37 36 19 7 — — 2 ±4.0% 607 Telephone 1
14 June 2018 John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
7 June 2018 Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
2018 election June 7, 2018 — 40.50 33.56 19.59 4.60 — 0.04 1.74 — 5,744,860 — 6.94
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green New Blue Ontario Other

Notes

  1. ^ 1% for Ontario First.
  2. ^ 2% for Ontario First.

Results

[edit]
The disproportionality of elections to the Legislative Assembly in the 2022 election was 22.59 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly due to the disparity between the vote share and seat share of the Liberals and PCs.

Despite only posting a marginal increase in the popular vote, the Progressive Conservative Party won with an increased parliamentary majority.[170]

PC gains came primarily at the expense of the New Democratic Party, who lost significant vote share primarily to the Liberal Party. Nevertheless, the NDP maintained their role as official opposition by a large margin. Although she won her seat, Andrea Horwath resigned as leader of the NDP.[171]

Despite edging out the NDP for second place in the popular vote, the Liberals only gained one seat and failed to regain official party status. After failing to win in his own riding, Liberal leader Steven Del Duca also announced his resignation as party leader.[172]

The only two candidates outside the three largest parties to be elected were Green Party leader Mike Schreiner and independent candidate Bobbi Ann Brady, who prior to the election was the executive assistant to the retiring PC MPP in her riding.

As of 19:30 GMT on 3 June, the full unofficial results are as follows:[173][174]

↓
83 31 8 1 1
Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal G I
Party Votes Seats
Progressive Conservative 1,912,057
40.82%
 Increase 0.32pp
83 / 124 (67%)
New Democratic 1,111,923
23.74%
 Decrease 9.85pp
31 / 124 (25%)
Liberal 1,116,961
23.85%
 Increase 4.28pp
8 / 124 (6%)
Green 279,152
5.96%
 Increase 1.36pp
1 / 124 (0.8%)
Independent[a 1] 25,334
0.54%
 Increase 0.40pp
1 / 124 (0.8%)
Popular vote
PC
 
 40.82%
Liberal
 
 23.85%
New Democratic
 
 23.74%
Green
 
 5.96%
Others
 
 5.63%
Seat summary
PC
 
 66.94%
New Democratic
 
 25.00%
Liberal
 
 6.45%
Green
 
 0.81%
Others
 
 0.81%
  1. ^ Bobbi Ann Brady was elected for Haldimand—Norfolk with 15,921 votes, or 0.34% of the vote.

Synopsis of results

[edit]
For greater analysis on results within the province, see Candidates of the 2022 Ontario general election.
Results by riding - 2022 Ontario general election[a 1][a 2][a 3]
Riding 2018 Winning party Turnout
[a 4][a 5] 		Votes[a 6]
Party Votes Share Margin
# 		Margin
% 		PC NDP Lib Green NB Ont Ind Other Total
 
Ajax PC PC 15,336 40.69% 1,775 4.71% 39.96% 15,336 6,291 13,561 1,305 625 330 239 – 37,687
Algoma—Manitoulin NDP NDP 11,252 45.93% 2,560 10.45% 42.47% 8,692 11,252 2,133 764 1,302 356 – – 24,499
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC PC 17,340 53.26% 7,340 22.55% 38.19% 17,340 2,501 10,000 1,268 649 732 – 69 32,559
Barrie—Innisfil PC PC 18,225 50.25% 11,283 31.11% 39.61% 18,225 6,942 6,564 2,291 1,220 764 147 119 36,272
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC PC 16,631 42.10% 296 0.75% 46.75% 16,631 3,093 16,335 1,699 1,104 638 – – 39,500
Bay of Quinte PC PC 21,381 49.30% 12,308 28.38% 45.91% 21,381 9,073 8,003 2,719 1,128 1,062 – – 43,366
Beaches—East York NDP Lib 14,398 35.42% 898 2.21% 49.58% 7,536 13,500 14,398 4,154 441 310 – 309 40,648
Brampton Centre NDP PC 10,119 41.36% 3,597 14.70% 36.67% 10,119 6,522 6,119 882 821 – – – 24,463
Brampton East NDP PC 12,869 44.32% 3,852 13.27% 36.35% 12,869 9,017 6,131 557 295 167 – – 29,036
Brampton North NDP PC 13,509 44.99% 4,870 16.22% 38.46% 13,509 5,949 8,639 895 610 423 – – 30,025
Brampton South PC PC 12,980 45.38% 5,023 17.56% 35.81% 12,980 5,475 7,957 1,028 974 – – 188 28,602
Brampton West PC PC 14,751 47.84% 6,662 21.60% 34.19% 14,751 6,398 8,089 854 511 233 – – 30,836
Brantford—Brant PC PC 20,738 44.17% 7,455 15.88% 42.05% 20,738 13,283 6,083 3,174 2,089 640 157 789 46,953
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC PC 20,304 48.56% 11,805 28.23% 47.02% 20,304 5,817 8,499 3,702 1,130 1,680 201 478 41,811
Burlington PC PC 22,348 42.55% 6,896 13.13% 51.63% 22,348 9,262 15,452 3,515 1,310 633 – – 52,520
Cambridge PC PC 14,590 37.03% 5,845 14.83% 43.22% 14,590 8,745 8,155 3,537 4,374 – – – 39,401
Carleton PC PC 22,295 48.15% 9,843 21.26% 48.79% 22,295 7,256 12,452 2,537 1,037 494 – 235 46,306
Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC PC 17,522 47.52% 6,359 17.25% 44.87% 17,522 11,163 – 1,244 1,463 5,478 – – 36,870
Davenport NDP NDP 20,242 57.06% 13,427 37.85% 43.30% 4,994 20,242 6,815 1,710 395 400 216 701 35,473
Don Valley East Lib Lib 12,313 43.86% 3,275 11.66% 42.37% 9,038 4,355 12,313 1,139 323 295 192 421 28,076
Don Valley North PC PC 15,041 47.41% 3,356 10.58% 40.76% 15,041 3,133 11,685 1,179 690 – – – 31,728
Don Valley West Lib Lib 16,177 44.01% 1,969 5.36% 49.36% 14,208 3,392 16,177 2,025 421 167 85 285 36,760
Dufferin—Caledon PC PC 22,911 49.67% 14,223 30.86% 42.07% 22,911 4,967 8,678 6,518 2,280 589 – 184 46,127
Durham PC PC 22,614 45.85% 10,338 20.96% 43.71% 22,614 9,168 12,276 1,981 1,898 686 697 – 49,320
Eglinton—Lawrence PC PC 16,605 42.30% 524 1.33% 46.72% 16,605 3,801 16,081 1,513 393 268 216 381 39,258
Elgin—Middlesex—London PC PC 22,369 51.08% 14,396 32.87% 44.78% 22,369 7,973 7,618 2,043 2,238 1,092 – 458 43,791
Essex NDP PC 24,926 51.10% 11,133 22.82% 47.21% 24,926 13,793 4,186 989 1,293 3,322 – 271 48,780
Etobicoke Centre PC PC 22,035 48.59% 6,592 14.54% 48.55% 22,035 3,906 15,443 2,036 1,117 530 – 284 45,351
Etobicoke—Lakeshore PC PC 17,978 37.48% 842 1.76% 45.28% 17,978 8,595 17,136 2,278 1,612 – 186 181 47,966
Etobicoke North PC PC 13,934 55.51% 8,050 32.07% 33.98% 13,934 3,290 5,884 690 391 782 – 132 25,103
Flamborough—Glanbrook PC PC 20,306 46.20% 10,311 23.46% 46.91% 20,306 9,995 8,970 2,392 1,492 710 – 86 43,951
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PC PC 18,661 42.05% 1,132 2.55% 45.56% 18,661 3,789 17,529 1,670 1,924 809 – – 44,382
Guelph Grn Grn 29,752 54.45% 18,603 34.05% 49.39% 11,149 4,402 7,263 29,752 1,619 – – 453 54,638
Haldimand—Norfolk PC Ind 15,921 35.05% 2,070 4.56% 48.88% 13,851 6,311 3,329 1,841 1,454 2,353 16,020 268 45,427
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC PC 25,594 52.31% 17,902 36.59% 48.14% 25,594 7,692 6,590 3,695 888 3,949 – 518 48,926
Hamilton Centre NDP NDP 16,690 57.26% 11,890 40.79% 37.94% 4,800 16,690 3,799 2,554 483 451 145 225 29,147
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP PC 12,166 34.60% 2,552 7.26% 40.95% 12,166 9,614 7,411 1,740 693 1,052 2,411 79 35,166
Hamilton Mountain NDP NDP 15,250 44.81% 5,039 14.81% 41.49% 10,211 15,250 5,300 1,913 770 590 – – 34,034
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP NDP 18,197 40.42% 3,345 7.43% 48.45% 14,852 18,197 8,184 2,416 904 464 – – 45,017
Hastings—Lennox and Addington PC PC 18,156 47.55% 10,898 28.54% 47.12% 18,156 7,258 7,102 1,732 1,129 2,807 – – 38,184
Humber River—Black Creek NDP NDP 7,959 34.49% 883 3.83% 33.15% 6,865 7,959 7,076 430 281 357 110 – 23,078
Huron—Bruce PC PC 24,369 51.97% 15,594 33.26% 54.16% 24,369 7,679 8,775 1,922 3,384 474 212 77 46,892
Kanata—Carleton PC PC 19,871 43.61% 8,826 19.37% 51.38% 19,871 11,045 10,672 2,503 1,085 393 – – 45,569
Kenora—Rainy River PC PC 9,567 59.57% 6,368 39.65% 40.21% 9,567 3,199 1,823 608 393 276 95 98 16,059
Kiiwetinoong NDP NDP 2,742 57.57% 1,316 27.63% 30.40% 1,426 2,742 281 158 156 – – – 4,763
King—Vaughan PC PC 23,439 57.31% 11,781 28.81% 39.79% 23,439 2,840 11,658 1,104 1,400 309 – 147 40,897
Kingston and the Islands NDP Lib 18,360 37.66% 3,174 6.51% 46.84% 11,973 15,186 18,360 1,601 429 827 130 243 48,749
Kitchener Centre NDP NDP 15,789 40.59% 5,413 13.91% 46.21% 10,376 15,789 5,728 4,980 2,029 – – – 38,902
Kitchener—Conestoga PC PC 15,045 40.03% 4,194 11.16% 48.88% 15,045 10,851 6,590 2,315 2,223 501 – 64 37,589
Kitchener South—Hespeler PC PC 13,768 39.91% 4,650 13.48% 42.16% 13,768 9,118 5,629 3,993 1,436 552 – – 34,496
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC PC 24,933 58.81% 16,946 39.97% 47.28% 24,933 7,987 4,063 1,688 2,701 727 – 300 42,399
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC PC 22,142 50.11% 12,996 29.41% 50.02% 22,142 9,146 6,962 2,982 753 1,663 213 324 44,185
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PC PC 24,657 57.69% 16,911 39.56% 49.18% 24,657 5,799 7,746 2,583 944 536 – 479 42,744
London—Fanshawe NDP NDP 16,123 47.06% 4,899 14.30% 36.56% 11,224 16,123 3,553 1,200 1,072 539 – 549 34,260
London North Centre NDP NDP 17,082 39.65% 4,031 9.36% 42.13% 13,051 17,082 9,013 2,064 1,200 368 – 307 43,085
London West NDP NDP 22,510 45.13% 5,624 11.27% 48.62% 16,886 22,510 6,077 1,713 1,277 521 – 898 49,882
Markham—Stouffville PC PC 21,176 48.43% 5,664 12.95% 44.51% 21,176 4,137 15,512 1,723 658 517 – – 43,723
Markham—Thornhill PC PC 14,011 48.82% 3,248 11.32% 39.68% 14,011 2,597 10,763 733 376 – – 219 28,699
Markham—Unionville PC PC 19,985 56.42% 9,211 26.00% 39.12% 19,985 2,579 10,774 1,299 536 249 – – 35,422
Milton PC PC 16,766 43.07% 1,680 4.32% 42.70% 16,766 3,777 15,086 1,612 1,579 – – 107 38,927
Mississauga Centre PC PC 14,719 43.60% 2,459 7.28% 38.14% 14,719 4,148 12,260 1,188 523 332 – 588 33,758
Mississauga East—Cooksville PC PC 13,840 40.91% 1,206 3.57% 39.58% 13,840 3,664 12,634 1,345 1,599 625 – 121 33,828
Mississauga—Erin Mills PC PC 15,693 42.15% 1,736 4.66% 41.70% 15,693 4,521 13,954 1,594 978 495 – – 37,235
Mississauga—Lakeshore PC PC 19,341 45.09% 3,573 8.33% 46.95% 19,341 3,647 15,768 2,160 1,014 501 – 459 42,890
Mississauga—Malton PC PC 13,028 44.89% 4,190 14.44% 36.51% 13,028 5,140 8,838 1,173 844 – – – 29,023
Mississauga—Streetsville PC PC 17,317 45.58% 3,838 10.10% 42.67% 17,317 4,554 13,479 1,137 737 484 – 281 37,989
Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP NDP 3,423 47.18% 829 11.43% 39.40% 2,594 3,423 852 141 222 – – 23 7,255
Nepean PC PC 17,123 39.26% 2,094 4.80% 45.89% 17,123 8,435 15,029 1,696 964 370 – – 43,617
Newmarket—Aurora PC PC 18,671 44.97% 5,602 13.49% 44.42% 18,671 5,281 13,069 2,332 1,520 532 – 118 41,523
Niagara Centre NDP NDP 16,360 39.70% 854 2.07% 43.37% 15,506 16,360 5,492 1,865 1,148 837 – – 41,208
Niagara Falls NDP NDP 24,207 48.08% 5,865 11.65% 43.60% 18,342 24,207 4,239 1,356 1,409 656 – 135 50,344
Niagara West PC PC 18,779 44.93% 10,121 24.22% 53.16% 18,779 8,658 8,013 2,702 1,098 2,207 – 339 41,796
Nickel Belt NDP NDP 15,611 50.77% 6,430 20.91% 45.51% 9,181 15,611 3,042 921 1,522 470 – – 30,747
Nipissing PC PC 15,392 50.20% 6,727 21.94% 48.29% 15,392 8,665 4,150 1,025 399 616 – 412 30,659
Northumberland—Peterborough South PC PC 26,419 50.93% 13,483 25.99% 51.72% 26,419 6,806 12,936 2,942 1,170 1,598 – – 51,871
Oakville PC PC 21,162 45.44% 3,608 7.75% 50.29% 21,162 3,154 17,554 2,416 764 497 – 1,022 46,569
Oakville North—Burlington PC PC 22,221 47.18% 5,590 11.87% 46.89% 22,221 4,673 16,631 2,027 1,097 446 – – 47,095
Orléans Lib Lib 23,982 46.26% 15,413 13.61% 46.59% 16,926 7,150 23,982 2,359 796 442 – 184 51,839
Oshawa NDP NDP 17,170 42.07% 747 1.83% 39.48% 16,423 17,170 3,726 1,641 1,006 843 – – 40,809
Ottawa Centre NDP NDP 30,311 54.34% 17,715 31.76% 50.74% 8,773 30,311 12,596 2,718 798 – 140 445 55,781
Ottawa South Lib Lib 18,282 45.14% 8,663 21.39% 42.48% 9,390 9,619 18,282 1,885 675 386 154 109 40,500
Ottawa—Vanier Lib Lib 16,132 41.89% 6,106 15.85% 39.42% 7,798 10,026 16,132 3,019 400 587 – 711 38,673
Ottawa West—Nepean PC NDP 15,696 37.54% 1,086 2.60% 47.42% 14,610 15,696 9,384 1,475 – 649 – – 41,814
Oxford PC PC 22,166 50.01% 12,662 28.57% 46.45% 22,166 9,504 5,457 2,097 1,518 3,579 – – 44,321
Parkdale—High Park NDP NDP 23,024 53.97% 13,477 31.59% 50.25% 6,270 23,024 9,547 2,587 537 349 – 350 42,664
Parry Sound—Muskoka PC PC 20,216 45.37% 2,114 4.74% 53.09% 20,216 3,427 – 18,102 883 1,649 155 126 44,558
Perth—Wellington PC PC 19,468 46.80% 10,298 24.76% 50.09% 19,468 9,170 6,708 2,627 2,457 985 – 182 41,597
Peterborough—Kawartha PC PC 20,205 38.58% 4,207 8.03% 51.47% 20,205 11,196 15,998 1,914 1,088 1,972 – – 52,373
Pickering—Uxbridge PC PC 19,208 44.43% 6,863 15.87% 45.29% 19,208 6,934 12,345 2,266 543 1,790 – 146 43,232
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC PC 24,563 61.12% 17,691 44.02% 46.29% 24,563 6,872 3,928 1,470 1,868 1,162 – 325 40,188
Richmond Hill PC PC 16,088 52.24% 6,263 20.34% 36.14% 16,088 2,805 9,825 917 535 519 – 107 30,796
St. Catharines NDP NDP 17,128 39.71% 2,277 5.28% 46.66% 14,851 17,128 7,175 1,764 1,103 613 – 502 43,136
Sarnia—Lambton PC PC 21,184 52.72% 11,695 29.11% 46.69% 21,184 9,489 4,200 1,266 2,719 351 – 972 40,181
Sault Ste. Marie PC PC 12,606 46.89% 2,577 9.59% 44.49% 12,606 10,029 1,610 675 894 – 1,070 – 26,884
Scarborough—Agincourt PC PC 14,040 49.03% 3,368 11.76% 39.43% 14,040 2,512 10,672 628 292 492 – – 28,636
Scarborough Centre PC PC 11,471 35.99% 1,793 5.63% 41.25% 11,471 8,358 9,678 892 355 297 352 466 31,869
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib Lib 13,405 46.31% 4,282 14.79% 41.63% 9,123 4,824 13,405 818 366 265 – 148 28,949
Scarborough North PC PC 12,646 48.31% 4,896 18.70% 39.26% 12,646 4,820 7,750 479 277 105 – 100 26,177
Scarborough—Rouge Park PC PC 15,989 45.28% 6,205 17.57% 45.12% 15,989 7,742 9,784 850 285 523 – 139 35,312
Scarborough Southwest NDP NDP 16,842 47.68% 7,092 20.08% 44.34% 9,750 16,842 6,556 1,251 383 320 110 114 35,326
Simcoe—Grey PC PC 27,067 51.18% 15,380 29.08% 43.52% 27,067 5,849 11,687 4,742 2,147 1,039 – 355 52,886
Simcoe North PC PC 23,041 49.80% 14,833 32.06% 46.24% 23,041 8,208 8,070 4,071 1,438 1,119 – 318 46,265
Spadina—Fort York NDP NDP 15,595 46.06% 6,132 18.11% 34.35% 6,221 15,595 9,463 1,902 581 – – 95 33,857
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PC PC 20,766 57.50% 14,308 39.62% 41.63% 20,766 4,982 6,458 1,477 1,538 893 – – 36,114
Sudbury NDP NDP 12,013 40.85% 3,494 11.88% 44.60% 8,519 12,013 5,727 1,480 724 353 90 504 29,410
Thornhill PC PC 18,395 53.28% 8,148 23.60% 39.88% 18,395 2,698 10,247 1,155 931 351 361 384 34,522
Thunder Bay—Atikokan NDP PC 9,657 36.31% 898 3.38% 43.09% 9,657 8,759 6,486 781 529 248 – 138 26,598
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lib NDP 8,404 34.12% 800 3.25% 43.24% 7,604 8,404 6,966 738 314 338 – 270 24,634
Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP NDP 9,735 42.74% 1,711 7.51% 42.61% 8,024 9,735 1,600 1,485 1,181 349 – 405 22,779
Timmins NDP PC 9,356 64.81% 5,085 35.22% 43.54% 9,356 4,271 – 323 421 – – 66 14,437
Toronto Centre NDP NDP 15,285 43.77% 2,465 7.06% 39.82% 4,245 15,285 12,820 1,784 385 – – 402 34,921
Toronto—Danforth NDP NDP 22,890 55.39% 13,650 33.03% 49.44% 5,556 22,890 9,240 2,513 515 232 – 378 41,324
Toronto—St. Paul's NDP NDP 15,292 36.26% 1,092 2.59% 48.07% 9,445 15,292 14,200 2,302 473 242 – 225 42,179
University—Rosedale NDP NDP 13,961 37.55% 3,789 10.19% 43.20% 6,535 13,961 10,172 5,904 469 – – 140 37,181
Vaughan—Woodbridge PC PC 19,340 53.78% 6,725 18.70% 44.03% 19,340 1,927 12,615 694 802 304 – 276 35,958
Waterloo NDP NDP 20,615 45.89% 7,439 16.56% 48.41% 13,176 20,615 6,251 3,110 1,178 359 – 233 44,922
Wellington—Halton Hills PC PC 25,049 50.61% 17,325 35.00% 48.38% 25,049 7,724 6,920 7,002 2,548 – – 250 49,493
Whitby PC PC 21,840 47.37% 11,316 25.54% 44.88% 21,840 10,524 9,556 2,397 903 519 168 197 46,104
Willowdale PC PC 14,105 44.66% 2,115 6.70% 39.84% 14,105 3,253 11,990 1,143 392 338 132 230 31,583
Windsor—Tecumseh NDP PC 17,692 45.89% 6,141 15.93% 40.61% 17,692 11,551 5,598 1,002 786 1,219 524 179 38,551
Windsor West NDP NDP 13,395 42.19% 2,184 6.88% 33.62% 11,211 13,395 4,159 879 630 1,478 – – 31,752
York Centre PC PC 12,947 46.03% 3,963 14.09% 38.94% 12,947 3,935 8,984 799 411 679 – 373 28,128
York—Simcoe PC PC 20,789 56.76% 14,470 39.51% 39.00% 20,789 4,083 6,319 2,691 1,633 698 – 415 36,628
York South—Weston NDP PC 11,138 36.60% 796 2.62% 38.11% 11,138 10,342 7,377 770 345 251 209 – 30,432
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = incumbent re-elected under the same party banner
  = incumbent switched allegiance after 2018 election
  = other incumbents renominated
  1. ^ Summarized from "Data Explorer". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  2. ^ Summarized from "Statistical Summary by Electoral District: 2022 Provincial General Election". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  3. ^ Summarized from "Summary of Valid Votes Cast for Each Candidate: 2022 Provincial General Election". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  4. ^ including spoilt ballots
  5. ^ Provincewide turnout was 44.06%
  6. ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Post-election pendulum

[edit]

The robustness of the margins of victory for each party can be summarized in electoral pendulums. These are not necessarily a measure of the volatility of the respective riding results. The following tables show the margins over the various 2nd-place contenders, for which one-half of the value represents the swing needed to overturn the result. Actual seat turnovers in the 2022 election are noted for reference.

  = seats that turned over in the election
Post-election pendulum - 2022 Ontario general election[a 1][a 2][a 3]
PC (83 seats)
Margins 5% or less
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte   Lib 0.75
Eglinton—Lawrence   Lib 1.33
Etobicoke—Lakeshore   Lib 1.76
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell   Lib 2.55
York South—Weston   NDP 2.62
Thunder Bay—Atikokan   NDP 3.38
Mississauga East—Cooksville   Lib 3.57
Milton   Lib 4.32
Mississauga—Erin Mills   Lib 4.66
Ajax   Lib 4.71
Parry Sound—Muskoka   Grn 4.74
Nepean   Lib 4.80
Margins 5%–10%
Scarborough Centre   Lib 5.63
Willowdale   Lib 6.70
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek   NDP 7.26
Mississauga Centre   Lib 7.28
Oakville   Lib 7.75
Peterborough—Kawartha   Lib 8.03
Mississauga—Lakeshore   Lib 8.33
Sault Ste. Marie   NDP 9.59
Margins 10%–20%
Mississauga—Streetsville   Lib 10.10
Don Valley North   Lib 10.58
Kitchener—Conestoga   NDP 11.16
Markham—Thornhill   Lib 11.32
Scarborough—Agincourt   Lib 11.76
Oakville North—Burlington   Lib 11.87
Markham—Stouffville   Lib 12.95
Burlington   Lib 13.13
Brampton East   NDP 13.27
Kitchener South—Hespeler   NDP 13.48
Newmarket—Aurora   Lib 13.49
York Centre   Lib 14.09
Mississauga—Malton   Lib 14.44
Etobicoke Centre   Lib 14.54
Brampton Centre   NDP 14.70
Cambridge   NDP 14.83
Pickering—Uxbridge   Lib 15.87
Brantford—Brant   NDP 15.88
Windsor—Tecumseh   NDP 15.93
Brampton North   Lib 16.22
Chatham-Kent—Leamington   NDP 17.25
Brampton South   Lib 17.56
Scarborough—Rouge Park   Lib 17.57
Scarborough North   Lib 18.70
Vaughan—Woodbridge   Lib 18.70
Kanata—Carleton   NDP 19.37
Margins > 20%
Richmond Hill   Lib 20.34
Durham   Lib 20.96
Carleton   Lib 21.26
Brampton West   Lib 21.60
Nipissing   NDP 21.94
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill   Lib 22.55
Essex   NDP 22.82
Flamborough—Glanbrook   NDP 23.46
Thornhill   Lib 23.60
Niagara West   NDP 24.22
Perth—Wellington   NDP 24.76
Whitby   NDP 25.54
Northumberland—Peterborough South   Lib 25.99
Markham—Unionville   Lib 26.00
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound   Lib 28.23
Bay of Quinte   NDP 28.38
Hastings—Lennox and Addington   NDP 28.54
Oxford   NDP 28.57
King—Vaughan   Lib 28.81
Simcoe—Grey   Lib 29.08
Sarnia—Lambton   NDP 29.11
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston   NDP 29.41
Dufferin—Caledon   Lib 30.86
Barrie—Innisfil   NDP 31.11
Simcoe North   NDP 32.06
Etobicoke North   Lib 32.07
Elgin—Middlesex—London   NDP 32.87
Huron—Bruce   Lib 33.26
Wellington—Halton Hills   NDP 35.00
Timmins   NDP 35.22
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock   NDP 36.59
York—Simcoe   Lib 39.51
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes   Lib 39.56
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry   Lib 39.62
Kenora—Rainy River   NDP 39.65
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex   NDP 39.97
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke   NDP 44.02
NDP (31 seats)
Margins 5% or less
Oshawa   PC 1.83
Niagara Centre   PC 2.07
Toronto—St. Paul's   Lib 2.59
Ottawa West—Nepean   PC 2.60
Thunder Bay—Superior North   PC 3.25
Humber River—Black Creek   Lib 3.83
Margins 5%–10%
St. Catharines   PC 5.28
Windsor West   PC 6.88
Toronto Centre   Lib 7.06
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas   PC 7.43
Timiskaming—Cochrane   PC 7.51
London North Centre   PC 9.36
Margins 10%–20%
University—Rosedale   Lib 10.19
Algoma—Manitoulin   PC 10.45
London West   PC 11.27
Mushkegowuk—James Bay   PC 11.43
Niagara Falls   PC 11.65
Sudbury   PC 11.88
Kitchener Centre   PC 13.91
London—Fanshawe   PC 14.30
Hamilton Mountain   PC 14.81
Waterloo   PC 16.56
Spadina—Fort York   Lib 18.11
Margins > 20%
Scarborough Southwest   PC 20.08
Nickel Belt   PC 20.91
Kiiwetinoong   PC 27.63
Parkdale—High Park   Lib 31.59
Ottawa Centre   Lib 31.76
Toronto—Danforth   Lib 33.03
Davenport   Lib 37.85
Hamilton Centre   PC 40.79
Liberal (8 seats)
Beaches—East York   NDP 2.21
Don Valley West   PC 5.36
Kingston and the Islands   NDP 6.51
Don Valley East   PC 11.66
Orléans   PC 13.61
Scarborough—Guildwood   PC 14.79
Ottawa—Vanier   NDP 15.85
Ottawa South   NDP 21.39
Green (1 seat)
Guelph   PC 34.05
Independent (1 seat)
Haldimand—Norfolk   PC 4.56
  1. ^ Summarized from "Data Explorer". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  2. ^ Summarized from "Statistical Summary by Electoral District: 2022 Provincial General Election". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  3. ^ Summarized from "Summary of Valid Votes Cast for Each Candidate: 2022 Provincial General Election". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.

Results summary by region

[edit]
Distribution of seats and popular vote %, by party by region (2022)
Region Seats Vote share (%) Change (pp)
PC NDP Lib Grn Ind PC NDP Lib Grn NB Ont PC NDP Lib Grn NB Ont Major swing
Central Ontario 10 – – – – 48.86 14.28 22.46 7.57 3.11 3.10 +3.01 -14.64 +5.03 +1.29 +3.11 +3.10  →  9.84
Eastern Ontario 7 – 1 – – 48.03 18.38 22.52 4.80 2.87 2.89 -2.54 -8.63 +5.76 +0.59 +2.87 +2.69  →  7.15
Greater Toronto Area (905) 24 1 – – – 46.95 15.18 30.01 3.74 2.37 1.22 +1.15 -12.29 +8.10 +0.75 +2.37 +1.22  →  10.20
Hamilton, Halton and Niagara 7 6 – – – 38.68 28.60 22.46 5.15 2.52 1.67 -0.29 -9.11 +5.23 +0.85 +2.52 +1.67  →  7.17
Midwestern Ontario 8 2 – 1 1 38.84 23.48 14.66 12.65 5.01 1.80 -3.33 -9.90 +1.74 +2.84 +5.01 +1.61  →  7.45
Northeastern Ontario 4 5 – – – 40.90 33.92 8.27 10.78 3.26 1.64 +7.37 -11.27 -4.22 +4.92 +3.26 +1.64  →  9.32
Northwest Ontario 2 2 – – – 39.21 32.06 21.59 3.17 1.93 1.20 +11.76 -5.73 -8.48 -0.01 +1.93 +1.20  →  10.12
Ottawa 3 2 3 – – 32.08 27.34 32.55 5.00 1.58 0.91 -1.82 -2.62 +2.40 +1.11 +1.58 +0.82  →  2.51
Southwestern Ontario 6 4 – – – 44.19 32.00 11.83 3.44 3.76 3.69 +4.70 -13.86 +2.53 -0.41 +3.76 +3.69  →  9.28
Toronto 12 9 4 – – 32.22 27.94 31.86 4.85 1.41 0.84 -2.55 -7.14 +6.53 +1.52 +1.41 +0.84  →  6.84
Total 83 31 8 1 1 40.83 23.74 23.91 5.96 2.71 1.78 +0.33 -9.85 +4.33 +1.35 +2.71 +1.74  →  7.09

Detailed results

[edit]
Election results for the 43rd Parliament of Ontario (2022)[175]
Political party Party leader MPPs Votes
Candidates 2018 Dissol. 2022 ± # #± % ± (pp)
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 124 76 67 83 7Increase 1,919,905 406,618Decrease 40.83% 0.64Increase
Liberal Steven Del Duca 121 7 7 8 1Increase 1,124,065 281Decrease 23.91% 4.49Increase
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 124 40 38 31 9Decrease 1,116,383 813,583Decrease 23.74% 9.60Decrease
Green Mike Schreiner 124 1 1 1 1Steady 280,006 15,487Increase 5.96% 1.39Increase
  Independents and no affiliation 40 – 6 1 1Increase 25,332 17,106Increase 0.54% 0.40Increase
New Blue Jim Karahalios 123 New 1 – – 127,462 New 2.71% New
Ontario Party Derek Sloan 105 – 1 – – 83,618 81,302Increase 1.78% 1.74Increase
None of the Above Greg Vezina 28 – – – – 6,202 9,944Decrease 0.13% 0.15Decrease
Libertarian Mark Snow 16 – – – – 5,242 37,580Decrease 0.11% 0.63Decrease
Populist Jim Torma 13 New – – – 2,638 New 0.06% New
Freedom Paul McKeever 11 – – – – 2,103 462Decrease 0.04% –
Communist Drew Garvie 12 – – – – 2,100 629Increase 0.04% 0.01Increase
Consensus Ontario Brad Harness 11 – – – – 1,651 1,031Decrease 0.04% 0.01Decrease
Moderate Yuri Duboisky 17 – – – – 1,618 581Decrease 0.03% 0.01Decrease
Canadians' Choice Party Bahman Yazdanfar 2 – – – – 568 671Decrease 0.01% 0.01Decrease
Confederation of Regions Murray Reid 3 – – – – 414 28Increase 0.01% –
People's Political Party Troy Young 3 – – – – 409 219Decrease 0.01% –
People's Progressive Common Front Raymond Samuels 3 New – – – 367 New 0.01% New
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Queenie Yu 3 – – – – 340 738Decrease 0.01% 0.01Decrease
Centrist Party Mansoor Qureshi 2 New – – – 295 New 0.01% New
Special Needs Lionel Poizner 2 – – – – 290 341Decrease 0.01% –
Northern Ontario Trevor Holliday 2 – – – – 283 5,629Decrease 0.01% 0.09Decrease
Public Benefit Party Kathleen Ann Sayer 2 New – – – 196 New – New
Electoral Reform Party Peter House 2 New – – – 182 New – New
Freedom of Choice, Peace & Justice Party Lilya Eklishaeva 2 New – – – 182 New – New
Ontario Alliance Joshua E. Eriksen 2 – – – – 108 694Decrease – 0.01Decrease
  Vacant 3
Total 897 124 4,701,959 1,042,901Decrease 100.00%
Rejected, unmarked and declined ballots 30,517 30,909Decrease  
Turnout 4,732,476 1,073,810Decrease  
Registered voters / turnout % 10,740,426 44.06% 12.61Decrease

Summary analysis

[edit]
Party candidates in 2nd place[176]
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
PC NDP Liberal Grn
Progressive Conservative 33 49 1 83
New Democratic 22 9 31
Liberal 4 4 8
Green 1 1
Independent 1 1
Total 28 37 58 1 124
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results[176]
Parties Seats
█ Progressive Conservative █ New Democratic 55
█ Progressive Conservative █ Liberal 53
█ Progressive Conservative █ Green 2
█ New Democratic █ Liberal 13
█ Independent █ Progressive Conservative 1
Total 124
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party[176]
Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total
█ Progressive Conservative 83 28 13 124
█ New Democratic 31 37 54 2 124
█ Liberal 8 58 53 2 121
█ Green 1 1 2 93 24 121
█ Independent 1 2 3
█ New Blue 1 16 80 97
█ Ontario Party 1 9 17 27
█ Confederation of Regions 1 1
█ Libertarian 1 1
█ None of the Above 1 1

Most marginal 2-way and 3-way contests

[edit]
Top 10 marginal 2-way contests (2022)[176]
Riding 1st 2nd 1st vs 2nd
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 42.10% 41.35% 0.75%
Eglinton—Lawrence 42.30% 40.96% 1.34%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 37.48% 35.72% 1.76%
Oshawa 42.07% 40.24% 1.83%
Niagara Centre 39.70% 37.63% 2.07%
Beaches—East York 35.42% 33.21% 2.21%
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 42.05% 39.50% 2.55%
Toronto—St. Paul's 36.25% 33.66% 2.59%
Ottawa West—Nepean 37.54% 34.94% 2.60%
York South—Weston 36.60% 33.98% 2.62%
Top 10 marginal 3-way contests (2022)[176]
Riding 1st 2nd 3rd 1st vs 3rd
Humber River—Black Creek 34.49% 30.66% 29.75% 4.74%
Thunder Bay—Superior North 34.12% 30.87% 28.28% 5.84%
Scarborough Centre 36.00% 30.37% 26.23% 9.77%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 36.31% 32.93% 24.39% 11.92%
York South—Weston 36.60% 33.98% 24.24% 12.36%
Kingston and the Islands 37.66% 31.15% 24.56% 13.10%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 34.60% 27.34% 21.08% 13.52%
Toronto—St. Paul's 36.25% 33.67% 22.39% 13.86%
Ottawa West—Nepean 37.54% 34.94% 22.44% 15.10%
Cambridge 37.03% 22.19% 20.70% 16.33%

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

[edit]

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

Riding Party Candidates Votes Placed
Haldimand—Norfolk █ Independent Bobbi Ann Brady 15,921 1st
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek █ Independent Paul Miller 2,411 4th
Sault Ste. Marie █ Independent Naomi Sayers 1,070 4th

Seats changing hands

[edit]

Of the 124 seats, 26 were open because of MPPs who chose not to stand for reelection, and voters in only 14 seats changed allegiance from the previous election in 2018.


Elections to the 43rd Legislative Assembly of Ontario – seats won/lost by party, 2018–2022
Party 2018 Gain from (loss to) 2022
PC NDP Lib Grn Ind
Progressive Conservative 76 9 (1) (1) 83
New Democratic 40 1 (9) 1 (2) 31
Liberal 7 2 (1) 8
Green 1 1
Independent – 1 1
Total 124 2 (9) 11 (2) 1 (2) – – – (1) 124

There were 14 seats that changed allegiance in the election:

Of the 14 seats that changed hands, seven were open seats where the MPPs chose to retire, and seven others saw their incumbents defeated.

Open seats taken by candidates of other parties (2022)
Riding Party Candidate Incumbent retiring from the House Won by Party
Beaches—East York █ New Democratic Kate Dupuis Rima Berns-McGown Mary-Margaret McMahon █ Liberal
Brampton North █ New Democratic Sandeep Singh Kevin Yarde[a 1] Graham McGregor █ Progressive Conservative
Essex █ New Democratic Ron LeClair Taras Natyshak Anthony Leardi █ Progressive Conservative
Haldimand—Norfolk █ Progressive Conservative Ken Hewitt Toby Barrett Bobbi Ann Brady █ Independent
Kingston and the Islands █ New Democratic Mary Rita Holland Ian Arthur Ted Hsu █ Liberal
Thunder Bay—Superior North █ Liberal Shelby Ch’ng Michael Gravelle Lise Vaugeois █ New Democratic
Windsor—Tecumseh █ New Democratic Gemma Grey-Hall Percy Hatfield Andrew Dowie █ Progressive Conservative
  1. ^ sat as an Independent at dissolution
Incumbent MPPs defeated (2022)
Constituency Party Name Year elected Seat held by party since Defeated by Party
Brampton Centre █ New Democratic Sara Singh 2018 2018 Charmaine Williams █ Progressive Conservative
Brampton East █ New Democratic Gurratan Singh 2018 2018 Hardeep Grewal █ Progressive Conservative
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek █ New Democratic Paul Miller[a 1] 2007 2007 Neil Lumsden █ Progressive Conservative
Ottawa West—Nepean █ Progressive Conservative Jeremy Roberts 2018 2018 Chandra Pasma █ New Democratic
Thunder Bay—Atikokan █ New Democratic Judith Monteith-Farrell 2018 2018 Kevin Holland █ Progressive Conservative
Timmins █ New Democratic Gilles Bisson 1990 1990 George Pirie █ Progressive Conservative
York South—Weston █ New Democratic Faisal Hassan 2018 2018 Michael Ford █ Progressive Conservative
  1. ^ chose to stand as an Independent in the election

Three PC MPPs had changed allegiance during the course of the past Legislature, but failed to secure reelection under their new banners. The seats reverted to the PCs.

Constituency Party (2018) Party (at dissolution) Name Year elected Changed allegiance Defeated by Party
Cambridge █ Progressive Conservative █ New Blue Belinda Karahalios 2018 2020 Brian Riddell █ Progressive Conservative
Chatham-Kent—Leamington █ Progressive Conservative █ Ontario Party Rick Nicholls 2011 2021 Trevor Jones █ Progressive Conservative
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell █ Progressive Conservative █ Liberal Amanda Simard 2018 2020 Stéphane Sarrazin █ Progressive Conservative
Resulting composition of the 43rd Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Source Party
PC NDP Lib Grn Ind Total
Seats retained Incumbents returned 55 28 4 1 88
Open seats held 16 1 2 19
Ouster of incumbents changing affiliation 3 3
Seats changing hands Incumbents defeated 6 1 7
Open seats gained 3 1 2 1 7
Total 83 31 8 1 1 124

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[edit]
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