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Deutsch2024 United States presidential election in Wyoming
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| Elections in Wyoming |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Wyoming took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Wyoming voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wyoming has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A sparsely populated Mountain West state, Wyoming is considered to be a deeply red state, and Donald Trump was expected to easily win the state. Wyoming was Trump's second-strongest state in 2016 and strongest state in 2020 (trading places with West Virginia), voting for Trump by more than a 40% margin in both elections. Alongside neighboring Idaho and Utah, Wyoming has voted Republican in each presidential race starting in 1968 and all but one starting in 1952. Trump's performance in the state garnering 71.6% of the vote is the highest a presidential candidate has ever received in Wyoming, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 70.51% of the vote in the 1984 presidential election. This also marks the first time since 2012 that any candidate won 70% of the vote in any state.
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Wyoming Republican primary was held from April 18 to 20, 2024,[2] as part of the Republican Party primaries. 23 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were selected at county conventions, between February and March, while six delegates were selected at the state convention.[3] However, all 29 delegates were allocated to candidates at the state convention. As the only candidate in the presidential preference poll taken at the state convention, former president and presumptive nominee Donald Trump easily won all 29 delegates.[4]
Endorsements included those from John Barasso (senator; 2007–present),[5] Cynthia Lummis, (senator 2021–present),[5] Harriet Hageman, WY-AL (US representative, 2023–present),[6] and Timothy Mellon, chairman and majority owner of Pan Am Systems[7]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 29 | 29 | |||
| Total: | 29 | 29 | |||
Democratic caucuses
[edit]The Wyoming Democratic caucuses was held on April 13, 2024, alongside the Alaska primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 380 | 96.0% | 13 | 13 | |
| Uncommitted | 13 | 3.3% | |||
| David Olscamp | 2 | 0.5% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 1 | 0.3% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 0 | 0.0% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 0 | 0.0% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 0 | 0.0% | |||
| Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 0 | 0.0% | |||
| Total: | 396 | 100.0% | 13 | 4 | 17 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[10] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[14] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[15] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[16] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[17] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[18] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[19] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[20] | October 26–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 69% | 27% | 4%[b] |
| University of Wyoming[21] | September 24 – October 27, 2024 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 63% | 28% | 9%[c] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[22][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 249 (LV) | – | 67% | 26% | 7% |
| Emerson College[23] | October 1–4, 2023 | 478 (RV) | ±4.5% | 68% | 15% | 18% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[22][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 249 (LV) | – | 53% | 36% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[22][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 249 (LV) | – | 67% | 20% | 13% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 192,633 | 71.60% | +1.64% | ||
| Democratic | 69,527 | 25.84% | −0.71% | ||
| Libertarian | 4,193 | 1.56% | −0.49% | ||
| Write-in | 2,695 | 1.00% | +0.37% | ||
| Total votes | 269,048 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican win | |||||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Write-in | Margin | Total votes cast | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Albany | 8,930 | 49.95% | 8,371 | 46.83% | 338 | 1.89% | 238 | 1.33% | 559 | 3.13% | 17,877 |
| Big Horn | 4,867 | 84.86% | 742 | 12.94% | 82 | 1.43% | 44 | 0.77% | 4,125 | 71.93% | 5,735 |
| Campbell | 16,006 | 87.26% | 2,004 | 10.93% | 226 | 1.23% | 106 | 0.58% | 14,002 | 76.34% | 18,342 |
| Carbon | 4,952 | 77.53% | 1,274 | 19.95% | 101 | 1.58% | 60 | 0.94% | 3,678 | 57.59% | 6,387 |
| Converse | 5,756 | 85.41% | 845 | 12.54% | 77 | 1.14% | 61 | 0.91% | 4,911 | 72.87% | 6,739 |
| Crook | 3,805 | 87.59% | 443 | 10.20% | 63 | 1.45% | 33 | 0.76% | 3,362 | 77.39% | 4,344 |
| Fremont | 11,552 | 66.94% | 5,179 | 30.01% | 329 | 1.91% | 196 | 1.14% | 6,373 | 36.93% | 17,256 |
| Goshen | 4,893 | 79.25% | 1,156 | 18.72% | 85 | 1.38% | 40 | 0.65% | 3,737 | 60.53% | 6,174 |
| Hot Springs | 2,082 | 79.47% | 488 | 18.63% | 34 | 1.30% | 16 | 0.61% | 1,594 | 60.84% | 2,620 |
| Johnson | 3,936 | 80.36% | 847 | 17.29% | 68 | 1.39% | 47 | 0.96% | 3,089 | 63.07% | 4,898 |
| Laramie | 28,063 | 64.72% | 14,153 | 32.64% | 683 | 1.58% | 463 | 1.07% | 13,910 | 32.08% | 43,362 |
| Lincoln | 8,957 | 82.63% | 1,623 | 14.97% | 151 | 1.39% | 109 | 1.01% | 7,334 | 67.66% | 10,840 |
| Natrona | 24,671 | 72.73% | 8,337 | 24.58% | 583 | 1.72% | 330 | 0.97% | 16,334 | 48.15% | 33,921 |
| Niobrara | 1,108 | 89.79% | 112 | 9.08% | 10 | 0.81% | 4 | 0.32% | 996 | 80.71% | 1,234 |
| Park | 13,804 | 79.05% | 3,259 | 18.66% | 232 | 1.33% | 168 | 0.96% | 10,545 | 60.38% | 17,463 |
| Platte | 3,874 | 81.30% | 780 | 16.37% | 73 | 1.53% | 38 | 0.80% | 3,094 | 64.93% | 4,765 |
| Sheridan | 12,041 | 73.31% | 3,920 | 23.87% | 258 | 1.57% | 206 | 1.25% | 8,121 | 49.44% | 16,425 |
| Sublette | 3,905 | 79.31% | 920 | 18.68% | 60 | 1.22% | 39 | 0.79% | 2,895 | 58.79% | 4,924 |
| Sweetwater | 12,541 | 75.10% | 3,731 | 22.34% | 297 | 1.78% | 129 | 0.77% | 8,810 | 52.76% | 16,698 |
| Teton | 4,134 | 31.12% | 8,748 | 65.84% | 195 | 1.47% | 209 | 1.57% | -4,614 | -34.73% | 13,286 |
| Uinta | 7,282 | 80.12% | 1,561 | 17.17% | 141 | 1.55% | 105 | 1.16% | 5,721 | 62.94% | 9,089 |
| Washakie | 3,125 | 80.60% | 656 | 16.92% | 60 | 1.55% | 36 | 0.93% | 2,469 | 63.68% | 3,877 |
| Weston | 3,069 | 87.39% | 378 | 10.76% | 47 | 1.34% | 18 | 0.51% | 2,691 | 76.62% | 3,512 |
| Total | 192,633 | 71.60% | 69,527 | 25.84% | 4,193 | 1.56% | 2,695 | 1.00% | 123,106 | 45.76% | 269,048 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Wyoming
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "Wyoming Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers. January 19, 2023. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ "Wyoming starts selecting presidential delegates Saturday. But there's not a statewide election". Associated Press. February 24, 2024. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
- ^ "Trump picks up more national delegates as the only choice for Wyoming Republicans". AP News. April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
- ^ a b Bycoffe, Aaron; Mejía, Elena; Radcliffe, Mary; Burton, Cooper; Groskopf, Christopher; Newman, Alex; Mangan, Andrew; Sweedler, Maya (April 24, 2023). "Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ Shimizu Harris, Maya (November 18, 2022). "Support for Trump presidential bid tepid among Wyoming's Washington delegation". Casper Star Tribune. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ Schwartz, Brian (December 11, 2022). "Meet the megadonors backing the Trump super PAC as some top donors opt out of supporting 2024 candidacy". CNBC. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ "Wyoming GOP presidential election results". Politico. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
- ^ "Wyoming Presidential Caucus". The AP. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "Wyoming Poll: Trump, Barrasso Dominate". The Cheyenne Post. November 1, 2024. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ "Wyoming Election Year Survey, 2024". University of Wyoming. November 1, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 17, 2023). "Wyoming 2024 Poll: President Biden with 13% Approval among Wyoming Residents". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Wyoming Secretary of State. "2024 General Election Statewide Candidates Summary" (PDF). Retrieved November 14, 2024.
