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General elections are scheduled to be held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025.[1] If necessary, a second round will be held on 13 April 2025.[1] Incumbent President Daniel Noboa is running for re-election, having been elected in the 2023 general election.[2] The election will also elect members of the National Assembly to a full four year term.[1]
Background
[edit]In 2024, the country faced a military and security conflict when Los Choneros leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar escaped from prison in the city of Guayaquil, on the day of his scheduled transfer to a maximum-security prison. The events were reported the next day by authorities, with charges being filed against two prison guards.[3][4] Following the escape, Noboa declared a state of emergency, to last for 60 days.[5] Riots ensued in multiple prisons across Ecuador following Noboa's decree of military use in prisons.[6] Two days later, mass armed attacks occurred throughout the country, including armed groups storming a television broadcasting station mid-air.[7][8]
In May 2024, Noboa filed to run for re-election with the National Electoral Council under a "special" registration number.[2]
Electoral system
[edit]The president is elected using a modified two-round system, with a candidate required to get over 50% of the vote, or get over 40% of the vote and be 10 points ahead of their nearest rival, to be elected in the first round.[9] The president is limited to two consecutive four-year terms.[9][10] However, Noboa is currently serving the remaining term of Guillermo Lasso, whose of muerte cruzada called for the 2023 snap general elections and his early conclusion of his presidency.[11]
Members of the National Assembly are elected by three methods.[10] Fifteen are elected by closed list proportional representation in a nationwide constituency.[12] Six are elected by overseas voters (two each from Canada/United States, Latin America and Asia/Europe/Oceania).[12] The remaining 116 members are elected from multi-member constituencies by closed list proportional representation, with all seats allocated using the Webster method.[12][13] Members of the National Assembly are limited to two four-year terms, regardless if they are consecutive or not.[13] There are gender quotas for the party lists, meaning there is alternation between men and women. There are no quotas for minority representation.[10]
Presidential candidates
[edit]Declared pre-candidates
[edit]The following pre-candidates have been selected to represent the following parties during their internal Primaries and are elegible for inscription, pending approval from the National Electoral Council:[14]
| Name | Born | Experience | Home province | Campaign | Ref | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
_(cropped).jpg) Henry Cucalón | 8 June 1973 (age 51) Guayaquil, Guayas | Minister of the Government (2023) Member of the National Assembly (2013–2021) |  | Running for: Announced: 2 July 2024 | [15] | |
 Jorge Escala | 8 January 1970 (age 54) Ventanas, Los Ríos | Member of the National Assembly (2009–2013) |  | Running for: Announced: 18 May 2024 | [16] | |
 Luisa González | 22 November 1977 (age 46) Quito, Pichincha | Member of the National Assembly (2021–2023) Secretary of Public Administration (2017) 2023 presidential candidate |  | Nominee of the: Announced: 29 February 2024 Nominated: 10 August 2024 | [17][18] | |
.jpg) Andrea González Náder | 1 April 1987 (age 37) Guayaquil, Guayas | Environmental activist 2023 vice presidential candidate | | Running for: Announced: 10 June 2024 | [19] | |
.jpg) Leonidas Iza | 18 June 1982 (age 42) Latacunga, Cotopaxi | President of CONAIE (2021–present) |  | Running for: Announced: 29 February 2024 | [17] | |
_1.1.jpg) Henry Kronfle | 1972 (age 52) Guayaquil, Guayas | President of the National Assembly (2023–present) Member of the National Assembly (2017–present) |  | Running for: Announced: 7 August 2024 | [20] | |
 Daniel Noboa | 30 November 1987 (age 36) Miami, Florida, U.S. | 48th President of Ecuador (2023–present) Member of the National Assembly (2021–2023) |  | Running for: Announced: 23 May 2024 | [17][2] | |
.jpg) Carlos Rabascall | 3 September 1960 (age 63) Guayaquil, Guayas | Businessman 2021 vice presidential candidate | | Running for: Announced: 24 July 2024 | [21] | |
 José Serrano | 19 November 1970 (age 53) Cuenca, Azuay | President of the National Assembly (2017–2018) Member of the National Assembly (2017–2021) Minister of the Interior (2011–2016) | | Running for: Announced: 31 July 2024 | [22] | |
 Jan Topić | 23 April 1983 (age 41) Guayaquil, Guayas | Businessman | | Running for: Announced: 17 August 2024 | [23][24] | |
- ^ Alliance is composed of National Democratic Action and Mover
Minor pre-candidates
[edit]The following pre-candidates have been also selected in the primaries of the national parties and are elegible for inscription but haven't been notable enough due to lack of coverage or not being present in a national opinion poll:
- Víctor Araus (People, Equality and Democracy), former General of the National Police of Ecuador[25]
- Juan Iván Cueva (AMIGO), businessman[14]
- Pedro Granja (PSE), criminal lawyer[26]
- Iván Saquicela (Democracy Yes), lawyer, former President of the National Justice Court[14][27]
- Eduardo Sánchez (RETO), businessman[28]
- Francesco Tabacchi (CREO), Gobernor of Guayas (2023)[29]
- Luis Tillería (Avanza), businessman, former council member of the City of London Corporation[30][31]
Withdrawn
[edit]| Name | Born | Experience | Home province | Campaign | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
.jpg) Jimmy Jairala | 26 September 1957 (age 66) Guayaquil, Guayas | Leader of the Democratic Center (2012–present) Prefect of Guayas Province (2009–2018) Member of the National Congress (2007) | | Ran for: Announced: 31 July 2024 Withdrew: 7 August 2024 (endorsed Serrano) | [22][20] |
.jpg) Paola Pabón | 28 January 1978 (age 46) Ibarra, Imbabura | Prefect of Pichincha Province (2019–present) Member of the National Assembly (2009–2015) | | Ran for: Announced: 6 June 2024 Withdrew: 7 August 2024 (endorsed González) | [32][20] |
Declined
[edit]The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy but have publicly denied interest in running or were rejected as pre-candidates and declined to pursue further with their candidacies.
- Bolívar Armijos Velasco, President of the National Council of Rural Parochial Governments of Ecuador (2014–2019) and 2023 presidential candidate[33]
- Pedro Freile, Director of the Inter-American Development Bank Ecuadorian Division (2004–2005), 2021 presidential candidate (endorsed Topić)[34][24]
- Lucio Gutiérrez, member of the National Assembly (2023–present) and 43rd President of Ecuador (2003–2005)[35] (endorsed González Náder)[36]
- Guillermo Lasso, 47th President of Ecuador (2021–2023) (endorsed Tabacchi)[37][38]
- Edwin Ortega (Gente Buena), retired Captain of the Ecuadorian Army (did not find support from any national party)[39]
- Dallyana Passailaigue, member of the National Assembly (2017–present)[40] (running for vice president; endorsed Kronfle)[41]
- Cristina Reyes, President of the Andean Parliament (2023–present), Member of the National Assembly (2013–2021), Municipal Councillor of Guayaquil (2009–2012)[42] (running for vice president; endorsed Cueva)[43]
- Diana Salazar Méndez, Attorney General of Ecuador (2019–present)[44]
Opinion polling
[edit]Pre-candidates
[edit]| Date(s) administered | Polling source | Sample siz | Margin of error | Daniel Noboa (ADN) | Luisa González (RC) | Pedro Granja (PSE) | Leonidas Iza (Pachakutik) | Henry Kronfle (PSC) | Carlos Rabascall (ID) | Andrea González (PSP) | Jorge Escala (UP) | Henry Cucalón (MC25) | Pedro José Freile (SUMA) | José Serrano (MCD) | Cristina Reyes (Ind.) | Others | Nulled | Blank | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 July | Maluk Research[45] | 4,793 | 2.5% | 34.61% | 40.11% | 3.90% | 4.07% | 0.48% | – | 3.10% | 4.65% | 1.74% | – | – | 1.94% | 5.39% | – | – | – |
| 4 July | Cedatos[46] | 3,882 | 2.4% | 35.2% | 11.7% | – | 3.4% | 4.0% | – | 5.9% | – | 7.0% | – | – | – | 2.0% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 12.3% |
References
[edit]- ^ a b c "Las elecciones presidenciales serán el 9 de febrero de 2025". Primicias. 9 February 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ a b c "ADN, de Daniel Noboa, fue inscrito en el CNE con un número 'especial'" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 23 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
- ^ "A notorious Ecuadorian gang leader vanishes from prison and authorities investigate if he escaped". Associated Press. 8 January 2024. Archived from the original on 8 January 2024. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
- ^ "Gunmen in Ecuador fire shots on live TV as country hit by series of violent attacks". CBS News. 10 January 2024. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
- ^ John, Tara (9 January 2024). "Ecuador declares 'internal armed conflict' as gunmen take over live TV broadcast". CNN. Archived from the original on 9 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
- ^ "Ecuador declares state of emergency after narco boss escapes prison". France 24. 8 January 2024. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
- ^ "Ecuador In State Of 'Internal Armed Conflict': President". www.barrons.com. AFP-Agence France. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
- ^ Lopez, Paola (9 January 2024). "Gunshots on live TV as Ecuador gangsters vow 'war'". The Herald Palladium. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
- ^ a b "IFES Election Guide | Elections: Ecuador Pres 2013". www.electionguide.org. Archived from the original on 31 March 2019. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
- ^ a b c "Ecuador: Sistemas Electorales / Electoral Systems". pdba.georgetown.edu. Archived from the original on 19 April 2023. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
- ^ "Qué es la 'muerte cruzada' invocada por el presidente Lasso en Ecuador y qué pasa ahora". BBC Mundo. 17 May 2023. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
- ^ a b c "La Asamblea aprobó reformas al Código de la Democracia". El Comercio. 22 January 2020. Archived from the original on 28 January 2021. Retrieved 15 January 2021.
- ^ a b "Electores no podrán votar por candidatos de distintas listas". El Comercio. 11 December 2019. Archived from the original on 9 January 2021. Retrieved 15 January 2021.
- ^ a b c "Estos son los 17 binomios que buscarán llegar al poder en las elecciones de 2025". Primicias. 2024-08-17. Retrieved 2024-08-18.
- ^ "'Quiero ser el primer servidor de la república', confirmó exministro de Gobierno Henry Cucalón". Primcias. 2 July 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
- ^ "Jorge Escala es el precandidato presidencial de Unidad Popular". Primcias. 30 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ a b c "Estos son los precandidatos presidenciales de Ecuador, hasta el momento" (in Spanish). Primicias. Retrieved 29 February 2024.
- ^ Valencia, Alexandra (2024-08-10). "Ecuador ex-President Correa's party taps Luisa Gonzalez as Presidential candidate". Reuters. Retrieved 2024-08-11.
Revolucion Ciudadana, the political party of Ecuador's ex-President Rafael Correa, picked on Saturday former lawmaker Luisa Gonzalez as its candidate for the 2025 presidential election.
- ^ "Andrea González es precandidata presidencial con Sociedad Patriótica de Lucio Gutiérrez" (in Spanish). Primicias. 10 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
- ^ a b c "Dayllanna Passailaigue, Andrés Guschmer, Luisa González, José Serrano, Cristina Reyes... serían algunas de las candidaturas definidas en las últimas horas". El Universo. 7 August 2024. Retrieved 8 August 2024.
- ^ "Carlos Rabascall será el precandidato a la Presidencia de la República por la Izquierda Democrática" (in Spanish). El Universo. 24 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ a b "José Serrano y Jimmy Jairala: el posible binomio de Centro Democrático para 2025" (in Spanish). Expreso. 31 July 2024. Retrieved 1 August 2024.
- ^ "Elecciones 2025: Pedro José Freile es precandidato presidencial por Suma" (in Spanish). Expreso. 23 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ a b "Jan Topic será el precandidato presidencial de SUMA, tras 'tomar la posta' de Pedro Freile". Primicias. 2024-08-17. Retrieved 2024-08-18.
- ^ "Los partidos ya sacan sus cartas presidenciales, pero guardan espacio para la sorpresa". Primicias. 2024-08-06. Retrieved 2024-08-10.
- ^ "Estos son los precandidatos presidenciales de Ecuador, hasta el momento" (in Spanish). Primicias. Retrieved 29 February 2024.
- ^ "Iván Saquicela, expresidente de la Corte, buscará la presidencia por Democracia Sí". Primicias. 2024-08-13. Retrieved 2024-08-18.
- ^ "Eduardo Sánchez y Katya Caicedo conforman el binomio del movimiento RETO". El Universo (in Spanish). 2024-08-16. Retrieved 2024-08-18.
- ^ Redacción (2024-08-17). "Elecciones 2025 | CREO oficializa a Francesco Tabacchi como su precandidato a la Presidencia". www.ecuavisa.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-08-18.
- ^ "Elecciones 2025: Movimiento Amigo presenta a Luis Tillería como su precandidato". www.expreso.ec (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-08-10.
- ^ Brown, David (2024-08-10). "City figure Luis Tilleria behind rogue lettings firms". www.thetimes.com. Retrieved 2024-08-10.
- ^ "Pabón: "Imagínense la potencia que tendríamos si somos Gobierno Nacional"" (in Spanish). Expreso. 6 June 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "Movimiento Amigo descarta candidatura presidencial de Bolívar Armijos". Expreso. 8 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "Estos son los 17 binomios que buscarán llegar al poder en las elecciones de 2025". Primicias. 2024-08-17. Retrieved 2024-08-18.
- ^ "Andrea González aclara que Lucio Gutiérrez no será su dupla presidencial" (in Spanish). Expreso. 30 June 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "Andrea González es precandidata presidencial con Sociedad Patriótica de Lucio Gutiérrez" (in Spanish). Primicias. 10 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
- ^ "Guillermo Lasso: "Creo debe buscar un candidato para las presidenciales de 2025"" (in Spanish). Primicias. 29 April 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ Redacción (2024-08-17). "Elecciones 2025 | CREO oficializa a Francesco Tabacchi como su precandidato a la Presidencia". www.ecuavisa.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-08-18.
- ^ prensa.ec (2024-06-16). "Capitán (SP) Edwin Ortega Sevilla anuncia su precandidatura presidencial para 2025". prensa.ec. Retrieved 2024-08-10.
- ^ "¿Quiénes son las piezas del PSC para las elecciones presidenciales del 2025?" (in Spanish). Vistazo. 19 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "Dayllanna Passailaigue, Andrés Guschmer, Luisa González, José Serrano, Cristina Reyes... serían algunas de las candidaturas definidas en las últimas horas". El Universo. 7 August 2024. Retrieved 8 August 2024.
- ^ "Cristina Reyes anuncia su precandidatura presidencial" (in Spanish). Primicias. 9 March 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "Juan Iván Cueva y Cristina Reyes, en la fórmula presidencial del movimiento Amigo". El Universo (in Spanish). 2024-08-16. Retrieved 2024-08-18.
- ^ "Fiscal Diana Salazar asegura que no será candidata a la Presidencia de la República en el 2025" (in Spanish). El Universo. 13 May 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "Encuesta Julio 2024" (PDF) (in Spanish). Maluk Research. 17 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "INFORME ESTUDIO OPINIÓN ECUADOR, A JULIO 4, 2024" (in Spanish). Cedatos. 4 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
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