2016 New York Republican presidential primary

2016 New York Republican presidential primary
← 2012 April 19, 2016 (2016-04-19) 2020 →
95 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention
 
Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich Ted Cruz
Home state New York Ohio Texas
Delegate count 89 6 0
Popular vote 554,522 231,166 136,083
Percentage 59.21% 24.68% 14.53%
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The 2016 New York Republican presidential primary was held on April 19 in the U.S. state of New York as one of the Republican Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Donald Trump won his home state with 59% of the vote and picked up 89 pledged delegates. He won over all age groups, income levels and political ideologies,[1] with most voters saying they want a candidate who "can bring change" and "tells it like it is". Most voters supported Trump's proposed ban on Muslim immigration to the United States.[2]

The Democratic Party also held their own New York primary on the same day which was won by Hillary Clinton. Apart from that, no other primaries were scheduled for that day by either party.

The state of the campaign

[edit]

National situation

[edit]

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 2 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.[3][4]

On March 15's primaries, Donald Trump took four of the five contests- Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Trump however was defeated in Ohio by John Kasich, losing all 66 of the state's delegates. Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after losing the Florida contest,[5] leaving just Cruz and Kasich in the race to oppose Trump.

On March 22, Trump won the Arizona contest and all of its 58 pledged delegates, while Cruz capitalized on Trump's comments critical of Mitt Romney's Mormon faith[6] to take the state of Utah and its 40 delegates.

The month of April brought several strong performances for Cruz. He capitalized on a weak ground game in the Donald Trump campaign to win the conventions in North Dakota and Colorado, despite criticism from Donald Trump.[7] In addition, Ted Cruz won the valuable Wisconsin primary and with it 36 of the state's 42 delegates. Many considered the probability of a "contested" Republican National Convention as it was considered doubtful that Trump would receive the requisite 1,237 delegates.[8]

New York situation

[edit]

Being Donald Trump's home state, New York was expected to be one of his strongest states in the primary contests. While Trump himself said that he would be satisfied with only one half of the delegates, most prognosticators said that Trump would have to perform extremely strongly in the state in order to avoid a contested convention.[9] Ted Cruz's attacks in a Fox Business Network primary debate in South Carolina, criticizing Donald Trump for holding what he referred to as "New York values"- meaning the liberal, left leaning values of New York City came under fire as Cruz was campaigning in New York as well.[10] This, combined with Trump's strong performances in the Northeast, especially Massachusetts, meant that Trump was considered a favorite with Kasich as his main challenger.

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

Results

[edit]
See also: Results of the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
New York Republican primary, April 19, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 554,522 59.21% 89 0 89
John Kasich 231,166 24.68% 6 0 6
Ted Cruz 136,083 14.53% 0 0 0
Blank & Void 14,756 1.58% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 936,527 100.00% 95 0 95
Source: The Green Papers

Of the 62 counties in the state, Donald Trump won 61, with the one loss being his home county of New York County (Manhattan), where John Kasich won. Trump's strongest showings were in Richmond County (Staten Island), Nassau County, Queens, Suffolk County and Erie County.[37] John Kasich won Manhattan with a plurality and placed a strong second in upstate college areas such as Cortland, Syracuse and the Capital District area centered around Albany.

Ultimately, Trump was able to get the full slate of delegates in 22 out of 27 congressional districts, due to meeting or exceeding the 50% threshold in each.[38] Kasich won 2 delegates in the 12th district (Upper East Side Manhattan/Queens), and one each in the 10th (Jewish Manhattan/Brooklyn neighborhoods), 13th (Harlem), 20th (Albany), and 24th (Syracuse) districts. Ted Cruz won 14.5% of the vote but did not win any delegates.

Republican Primary Results by County

[edit]
County Carson* % Cruz % Kasich % Trump % BVS Total Turnout MV%
Albany 150 1.04% 2,390 16.58% 5,026 34.87% 6,793 41.13% 55 14,414 41.25% 12.26%
Allegany 156 2.93% 1,159 21.74% 1,175 22.05% 2,827 53.04% 13 5,330 43.63% 30.99%
Bronx 127 1.75% 1,164 16.00% 1,148 15.78% 4,730 65.00% 108 7,277 19.57% 49.00%
Broome 286 1.55% 3,953 21.45% 5,138 27.88% 8,923 48.42% 130 18,430 45.32% 20.54%
Cattaraugus 113 1.74% 1,298 19.97% 1,419 21.83% 3,636 55.93% 35 6,501 38.22% 31.10%
Cayuga 70 1.13% 1,136 18.38% 1,942 31.42% 3,024 48.92% 9 6,181 37.92% 17.51%
Chautauqua 177 1.85% 2,016 21.08% 2,294 23.99% 5,027 52.57% 49 9,563 38.35% 28.58%
Chemung N/A 1,820 21.16% 2,372 27.58% 4,208 48.92% 201 8,601 42.99% 21.35%
Chenango 87 1.64% 1,133 21.31% 1,394 26.22% 2,659 50.02% 43 5,316 43.33% 23.80%
Clinton N/A 739 15.77% 1,389 29.64% 2,487 53.06% 72 4,687 33.05% 23.43%
Columbia 63 1.32% 744 15.62% 1,271 26.68% 2,662 55.88% 24 4,764 40.46% 29.20%
Cortland N/A 900 22.66% 1,276 32.13% 1,710 43.06% 85 3,971 41.05% 10.93%
Delaware 91 1.85% 846 17.19% 1,142 23.21% 2,831 57.53% 11 4,921 42.63% 34.32%
Dutchess 213 1.05% 2,840 13.94% 4,401 21.60% 12,872 63.18% 46 20,372 40.07% 41.58%
Erie N/A 7,964 12.93% 13,136 21.33% 39,589 64.27% 907 61,596 42.04% 42.95%
Essex 68 1.71% 664 16.72% 1,274 32.07% 1,918 48.29% 48 3,972 36.82% 16.21%
Franklin 62 2.27% 433 15.83% 763 27.90% 1,460 53.38% 17 2,735 32.34% 25.48%
Fulton 72 1.17% 1,036 16.85% 1,552 25.24% 3,456 56.20% 34 6,150 39.59% 30.96%
Genesee N/A 1,032 16.54% 1,282 20.54% 3,815 61.13% 112 6,241 40.16% 40.59%
Greene N/A 705 16.39% 838 19.48% 2,689 62.52% 69 4,301 37.08% 43.04%
Hamilton N/A 210 18.77% 326 29.13% 565 50.49% 18 1,119 44.89% 21.36%
Herkimer 107 1.47% 1,042 14.35% 1,877 25.85% 4,193 57.75% 42 7,261 41.32% 31.90%
Jefferson 121 1.28% 1,235 13.10% 2,860 30.34% 5,190 55.07% 19 9,425 41.69% 24.72%
Kings (Brooklyn) 255 1.01% 4,872 19.32% 4,024 15.96% 15,920 63.14% 144 25,215 25.12% 43.82%
Lewis 71 2.29% 476 15.36% 898 28.99% 1,643 53.03% 10 3,098 36.49% 24.05%
Livingston 116 1.62% 1,329 18.54% 1,724 24.05% 3,957 55.20% 43 7,169 43.60% 31.15%
Madison N/A 1,358 19.87% 2,214 32.39% 3,108 45.47% 155 6,835 43.72% 13.08%
Monroe 685 1.24% 9,537 17.23% 16,870 30.47% 28,034 50.63% 239 55,365 43.98% 20.16%
Montgomery 42 1.12% 793 21.15% 865 23.07% 2,039 54.39% 10 3,749 39.85% 31.32%
Nassau N/A 9,902 9.54% 22,722 21.90% 69,692 67.17% 1,437 103,753 32.35% 45.27%
New York (Manhattan) 254 0.93% 3,586 13.08% 12,181 44.43% 11,196 40.84% 198 27,415 32.30% -3.59%
Niagara 245 1.40% 2,406 13.78% 3,321 19.02% 11,450 65.56% 43 17,465 41.26% 46.54%
Oneida 252 1.23% 3,335 16.33% 5,398 26.44% 11,332 55.50% 102 20,419 43.10% 29.06%
Onondaga 307 0.91% 6,075 17.97% 12,055 35.67% 15,155 44.84% 207 33,799 41.76% 9.17%
Ontario 180 1.60% 2,061 18.37% 3,380 30.13% 5,558 49.55% 39 11,218 43.02% 19.42%
Orange 217 0.89% 3,120 12.75% 4,372 17.87% 16,659 68.07% 104 24,472 35.94% 50.21%
Orleans 61 1.45% 720 16.65% 799 18.95% 2,643 62.69% 11 4,216 40.68% 43.74%
Oswego 188 1.57% 2,026 16.88% 3,285 27.37% 6,423 53.52% 80 12,002 38.57% 26.15%
Otsego 96 1.78% 1,035 19.20% 1,516 28.12% 2,719 50.43% 26 5,392 41.92% 22.31%
Putnam 61 0.70% 986 11.36% 1,587 18.28% 6,027 69.44% 19 8,680 40.96% 51.15%
Queens 342 1.08% 4,495 14.20% 5,601 17.69% 20,951 66.18% 268 31,657 27.36% 48.49%
Rensselaer 100 1.10% 1,576 17.27% 2,600 28.48% 4,758 52.13% 94 9,128 38.70% 23.64%
Richmond (Staten Island) 120 0.45% 2,096 7.90% 2,690 10.14% 21,521 81.09% 114 26,541 34.76% 70.95%
Rockland 104 0.70% 2,367 15.92% 3,158 21.24% 9,219 62.00% 21 14,869 34.71% 40.76%
St. Lawrence 124 1.74% 1,074 15.04% 2,036 28.52% 3,825 53.58% 80 7,139 36.07% 25.06%
Saratoga 240 0.97% 4,404 17.85% 8,272 33.52% 11,673 47.30% 88 24,677 41.91% 13.78%
Schenectady N/A 2,010 20.93% 2,946 30.67% 4,496 46.81% 152 9,604 41.32% 16.14%
Schoharie N/A 640 22.74% 638 22.66% 1,497 53.18% 40 2,815 39.99% 30.44%
Schuyler 42 2.21% 405 21.35% 461 24.30% 979 51.61% 10 1,897 40.85% 27.31%
Seneca 56 1.85% 521 17.21% 854 28.20% 1,585 52.34% 12 3,028 40.86% 24.14%
Steuben 262 2.24% 2,401 20.50% 2,755 23.52% 6,252 53.37% 44 11,714 42.09% 29.85%
Suffolk 735 0.73% 9,099 9.01% 18,694 18.52% 72,359 71.67% 77 100,964 34.15% 53.15%
Sullivan N/A 534 13.19% 687 16.98% 2,742 67.75% 84 4,047 33.08% 50.78%
Tioga 126 2.09% 1,429 23.68% 1,546 25.62% 2,926 48.48% 8 6,035 44.66% 22.87%
Tompkins 105 2.11% 1,342 26.96% 1,691 33.98% 1,821 36.59% 18 4,977 42.82% 2.61%
Ulster 142 1.41% 1,332 13.19% 2,197 21.75% 6,388 63.24% 43 10,102 36.63% 41.49%
Warren 101 1.28% 1,206 15.28% 2,772 35.12% 3,761 47.64% 54 7,894 42.15% 12.53%
Washington 7 0.13% 1,048 19.15% 1,839 33.61% 2,458 44.92% 120 5,472 37.60% 11.31%
Wayne N/A 1,627 19.99% 2,016 24.77% 4,472 54.94% 156 8,271 38.12% 30.17%
Westchester 376 0.83% 5,245 11.59% 13,599 30.06% 25,880 57.20% 147 45,247 35.31% 27.14%
Wyoming N/A 749 17.40% 724 16.82% 2,752 63.94% 79 4,304 40.10% 46.54%
Yates 43 1.56% 425 15.44% 884 32.11% 1,388 50.42% 13 2,753 43.29% 18.31%
Total 8,018* 0.86% 136,083 14.53% 231,166 24.69% 554,522 59.22% 6,636 936,525 36.35% 34.53%

*Note: Blank, Void, and Scattering (BVS) votes include some votes for Former Candidate Ben Carson. Carson vote totals are unavailable in some county canvass returns. Only those available are posted. New York is a Closed primary state, meaning that the turnout is based on Active Republican Voters on April 1, 2016

See also

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References

[edit]
  1. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 29, 2016.
  2. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 29, 2016.
  3. ^ "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  4. ^ "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  5. ^ "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. March 15, 2016. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  6. ^ Schleifer, Theodore (March 19, 2016). "Trump on Romney: 'Are you sure he's a Mormon?'". CNN. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  7. ^ "Trump escalates challenge, calls Colorado GOP vote "a crooked deal"". The Denver Post. April 11, 2016. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  8. ^ Conlin, Michelle; Gibson, Ginger. "Trump opponents buoyed after front-runner's Wisconsin loss". Reuters. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  9. ^ Finnegan, Michael (April 20, 2016). "The cold, hard math of GOP delegate fight makes a big New York win crucial for Donald Trump". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  10. ^ Diamond, Jeremy (April 7, 2016). "Trump hits Cruz over 'New York values' on Long Island". CNN. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  11. ^ Primary results
  12. ^ "Clinton and Trump Poised to Regain Momentum in the Empire State; NY Looks Safe For Dems In General" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved April 18, 2016.
  13. ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker New York" (PDF). YouGov. Retrieved April 18, 2016.
  14. ^ "New York Republican Presidential Primary". Optimus. Retrieved April 16, 2016.
  15. ^ "Donald Trump Holds 29-Point Lead in NY: NBC4/WSJ/Marist Poll". Marist College. April 15, 2016. Retrieved April 16, 2016.
  16. ^ "Bernie Narrows Gap; Hillary Still Leads By 10 Points; Trump Maintains Huge Lead, Kasich 2nd, Cruz 3rd" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
  17. ^ "BLACK VOTES MATTER FOR CLINTON IN NEW YORK, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; TRUMP SWEEPS ALL GROUPS AGAINST CRUZ OR KASICH" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved April 13, 2016.
  18. ^ "New York Hates Ted Cruz; Trump, Clinton Lead Big" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved April 13, 2016.
  19. ^ "New York Questionnaire" (PDF). Marist College. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 11, 2016. Retrieved April 12, 2016.
  20. ^ "NY1/BARUCH COLLEGE NEW YORK STATE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLL" (PDF). Baruch College. Retrieved April 13, 2016.
  21. ^ "Trump Maintains Large Lead In Empire State Primary". Liberty Opinion Research LLC. Archived from the original on April 15, 2016. Retrieved April 13, 2016.
  22. ^ "Clinton and Trump Lose Ground in NY, but Still in Control; Voters Weigh in on Open-Conventions" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved April 9, 2016.
  23. ^ "Fox News Poll: 2016 New York State primary". Shaw and Company Research. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
  24. ^ "NEW YORK: TRUMP OVER 50 PERCENT" (PDF). Monmouth University. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 17, 2016. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
  25. ^ "Close races in Wisconsin; Clinton and Trump ahead in New York". YouGov. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  26. ^ "Clinton, Trump Have Big Leads In New York Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Adopted Daughter Thumps Native Son, Edges Kasich". Quinnipiac University. Archived from the original on April 3, 2016. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  27. ^ "TRUMP LEADS BY 33% IN NEW YORK GOP PRIMARY". Liberty Opinion Research LLC. Archived from the original on April 1, 2016. Retrieved March 30, 2016.
  28. ^ "New York Republican Presidential Primary". Optimus. Retrieved March 30, 2016.
  29. ^ "EMERSON POLL: TRUMP, CLINTON TROUNCING THEIR RIVALS IN NEW YORK; IN GENERAL ELECTION, HILLARY AND BERNIE LEAD THE DONALD" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved March 19, 2016.
  30. ^ "Clinton & Trump Continue to Hold Commanding Leads in New York in Their Respective Party Primaries" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  31. ^ "Hillary Leads Bernie By 21 Points Among NY Dems; Trump Has Strong Lead Over Rubio & Cruz with NY Reps" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved February 9, 2016.
  32. ^ Siena College Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine
  33. ^ Quinnipiac University Archived 2015-06-15 at the Wayback Machine
  34. ^ Siena College Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine
  35. ^ Quinnipiac University
  36. ^ Marist College
  37. ^ "New York Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 23, 2016.
  38. ^ "New York Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved April 23, 2016.
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