Opinion polling for the 2016 Portuguese presidential election

In the run up to the 2016 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

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First round

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Graphical summary

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Polling

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  Exit poll

Date(s)
administered 		Poll source Sample size Others/
Undecided
Marcelo
PSD, CDS-PP 		Belém
Ind. 		Nóvoa
Ind. 		Neto
Ind. 		E. Silva
PCP 		Matias
BE 		Morais
Ind. 		Ferreira
Ind. 		V. Silva
Ind. 		Sequeira
Ind.
24 January 2016 Election results 48.7% 52.0 4.2 22.9 0.8 3.9 10.1 2.2 0.2 3.2 0.3
—
24 Jan UCP–CESOP 31,018 49.0–54.0 3.0–5.0 22.0–25.0 0.0–2.0 3.0–5.0 9.0–11.0 1.0–3.0 0.0–1.0 2.0–4.0 0.0–1.0
—
24 Jan Eurosondagem 43,678 50.1–54.9 3.3–4.8 21.1–24.8 0.7–1.4 3.0–4.1 8.8–11.3 1.4–2.5 0.3–0.7 2.6–3.7 0.3–0.7
—
24 Jan Intercampus 15,481 50.9–55.7 2.9–5.9 19.3–23.3
—
 1.9–4.9 8.8–12.4
—
—
—
—
 5.5–8.5
16–20 Jan Aximage 1,301 51.5 9.0 22.6 0.8 5.2 6.6 2.3 0.1 1.8 0.1
14–20 Jan Intercampus 1,043 51.8 10.1 16.9 2.3 4.6 7.9 2.9 0.5 2.5 0.6
14–19 Jan Eurosondagem 2,025 55.0 13.3 19.0 1.1 3.7 5.3 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 16.1[1]
16–17 Jan UCP–CESOP 3,340 52.0 8.0 22.0 1.0 3.0 8.0 3.0 0.5 2.0 0.5
11–14 Jan Consulmark2 1,004 53.0 10.5 23.4 1.0 2.5 4.0 3.8 0.1 1.5 0.3
7–13 Jan Eurosondagem 1,516 54.8 16.3 16.8 1.1 4.0 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 17.7[2]
2–5 Jan Aximage 602 52.9 11.8 16.9 1.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 8.8
2016
16–21 Dec Eurosondagem 1,515 52.5 18.1 16.9 1.3 4.7 4.8 1.7
5–6 Dec UCP–CESOP 1,183 62.0 14.0 15.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0
28 Nov–2 Dec Aximage 605 54.6 13.4 13.2 0.4 1.9 2.4 1.1 13.0
13–18 Nov Eurosondagem 1,510 48.0 18.9 16.7 2.2 5.2 6.9 1.1 1.0
31 Oct–4 Nov Aximage 603 56.9 13.1 15.3 2.1 12.9
26 Sep–1 Oct Aximage 1,387 29.7 14.7 13.0 1.1 JS (10.3) 31.2[3]
23–30 Sep Intercampus 1,013 49.3 17.0 10.1 1.4 22.2[4]
2015

Hypothetical runoff polling

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Date(s)
administered 		Poll source Sample size
Marcelo
PSD 		Rio
PSD 		Santana
PSD 		Barroso
PSD 		Guterres
PS 		Vitorino
PS 		Silva
Ind. 		Nóvoa
Ind. 		Belém
PS 		Gama
PS
14–20 Jan Intercampus 1,043 68.4 - - - - - - - 31.6 -
67.0 - - - - - - 33.0 - -
14–19 Jan Eurosondagem 2,025 65.2 - - - - - - - 34.8 -
64.8 - - - - - - 35.2 - -
7–13 Jan Eurosondagem 1,516 63.7 - - - - - - - 36.3 -
63.0 - - - - - - 37.0 - -
2016
16–21 Dec Eurosondagem 1,515 62.5 - - - - - - - 37.5 -
62.1 - - - - - - 37.9 - -
5–6 Dec UCP–CESOP 1,183 57.0 - - - - - - - 17.0 -
57.0 - - - - - - 17.0 - -
4–8 Feb Aximage 608 65.9 - - - - - - - 34.1 -
65.7 - - - - - - - - 34.3
62.8 - - - - 37.2 - - - -
- 59.6 - - - - - - 40.4 -
- 67.7 - - - - - - - 32.3
- 54.8 - - - 45.2 - - - -
- - 24.9 - - 75.1 - - - -
- - 35.2 - - - - - 64.8 -
- - 34.9 - - - - - - 65.1
8–14 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 47.5 - - - 52.5 - - - - -
- 45.9 - - 54.1 - - - - -
- - 44.8 - 55.2 - - - - -
48.0 - - - - 52.0 - - - -
- 46.1 - - - 53.9 - - - -
- - 43.4 - - 56.6 - - - -
61.1 - - - - - - 38.9 - -
- 56.5 - - - - - 43.5 - -
- - 58.3 - - - - 41.7 - -
2015
17–21 Nov Eurosondagem 1,033 - - - 39.7 60.3 - - - - -
47.4 - - - 52.6 - - - - -
- - 41.3 - 58.7 - - - - -
- 44.2 - - 55.8 - - - - -
- - - 40.7 - 59.3 - - - -
48.2 - - - - 51.8 - - - -
- - 44.5 - - 55.5 - - - -
- 47.5 - - - 52.5 - - - -
- - - 55.2 - - 44.8 - - -
64.9 - - - - - 35.1 - - -
- - 58.0 - - - 42.0 - - -
- 64.8 - - - - 35.2 - - -
- - - 69.5 - - - 30.5 - -
70.2 - - - - - - 29.8 - -
- - 65.1 - - - - 34.9 - -
- 70.6 - - - - - 29.4 - -
2014

Leadership polls

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Preferred candidate

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Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Centre-Right/Right

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Date(s)
administered 		Poll source Sample size Others/
Undecided
Marcelo
PSD 		Rio
PSD 		Santana
PSD 		Barroso
PSD 		Portas
CDS–PP 		Mendes
PSD 		Esteves
PSD 		Beleza
PSD 		Leite
PSD 		Morais
Ind.
12–16 Jul Aximage 607 46.2 36.7 - 6.5 - - - - - - 10.6
2–7 Jul Eurosondagem 1,025 29.6 24.8 16.9 - - - - - - 2.0 26.7
3–6 Mar Aximage[5] 600 49.8 35.7 5.6 - - - - - 7.0 - 1.9
Aximage[6] 39.7 40.2 4.8 - - - - - 8.6 - 6.7
2015
6–9 Dez Aximage 609 44.2 32.3 4.2 8.2 - - - 4.3 - - 6.8
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,005 29.3 26.4 13.3 6.9 4.8 2.5 2.1 - - - 14.7
2013
5–7 Mar Aximage 600 40.0 - 9.3 22.9 - - - 8.3 - - 19.5
2012

Centre-Left/Left

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Date(s)
administered 		Poll source Sample size Others/
Undecided
Costa
PS 		Guterres
PS 		Sócrates
PS 		Vitorino
PS 		Silva
Ind. 		Rodrigues
PS 		Nóvoa
Ind. 		Belém
PS 		Seguro
PS 		Oliveira Martins
Ind. 		Neto
PS
12–16 Jul Aximage 607 - - - - - - 25.9 32.4 - 18.1 - 23.7
2–7 Jul Eurosondagem 1,025 - - - - - - 33.3 25.0 - - 4.8 36.9
3–6 Mar Aximage[7] 600 - - - 39.5 20.0 - - 25.7 8.8 - - 6.0
Aximage[6] - - - 42.4 10.7 - - 21.1 13.4 - - 12.4
2015
6–9 Dez Aximage 609 43.8 27.3 - - 6.3 - 3.1 10.4 - - - 9.1
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,005 26.6 20.9 13.7 10.0 6.5 3.3 2.2 - - - - 16.8
2013
5–7 Mar Aximage 600 33.1 25.4 - - 10.3 - - 15.0 - - - 16.2
2012

References

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  1. ^ Undecided voters: 16.1
  2. ^ Undecided voters: 17.7
  3. ^ Rui Rio: 21.5
  4. ^ Rui Rio: 15.1
  5. ^ Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.
  6. ^ a b All voters asked.
  7. ^ Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.
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